Nominations Postmortem

Here are some quick numbers for you:

DAVE: 67/96 noms correct, or 70%. 11 Categories with 1 or fewer misses, nailing all of Actress, Supporting Actor, and Director.

ME: 72/96 correct, or 75%. 11 Categories with 1 or fewer misses, nailing Actress, Cinematography, Visual FX, and Adapted Screenplay.

-We both missed two in Best Picture: Dave believed in Invictus more than District 9, I passed up A Serious Man for Crazy Heart on a wild hunch, and we both thought much more of Star Trek’s chances than the surprise inclusion The Blind Side.

-What does the field tell us? The Blind Side making the top ten pretty much cements Actress for Bullock, which means it’ll be four boring acting races again this year as Bridges, Waltz, and Mo’Nique haven’t been sweating it for months now.

-Two bad signs for contenders: Avatar, already losing momentum, missed out in Original Screenplay to also-rans like The Messenger and A Serious Man- granted the screenplay was always the weakest link to begin with. More worrying is Up In The Air getting shut out of Editing in favor of Precious and District 9- Reitman looks like he’ll have two contenders in a row that only go home with a screenplay award.

-What’s depressing is that one can reasonably call all the major awards right now, with Bigelow, The Hurt Locker, and Mark Boal’s script thereof, joining Reitman and Turner and the four acting favorites above. But I get excited for the techs as much as anything else, and there’s some interesting races left there.

-What’s amazing is The Hurt Locker needing only one acting nomination to match Avatar with 9 overall- nearly going bow for blow in the techs, with both sounds, editing, cinematography, SCORE. If you cancel out the common nods, it’s Avatar in Visual Effects and Art Direction matched against The Hurt Locker in Leading Actor and Original Screenplay, and there’s a clear winner there.

-True Surprises: Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart? I was feeling pretty good about my Best Picture prediction when that popped up, but alas. A small, wonderful looking animated feature called The Secret Of Kells knocked out Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs leaving the category probably the strongest one front to back in quality.

-My big question- ten nominations was fun and all, but does anyone expect people to believe there are more than five real contenders (those being the five nominated for Director as well)? You could say District 9’s editing nod makes it a viable sixth man, but I don’t think you’d really believe yourself.

-What I’m Most Proud Of: Calling Harry Potter in cinematography, and Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Parnassus in a couple of categories. I was worried I was picking with my heart too much. I’m always stoked to get ANY of Original Song, and three is a record, I think. Plus In The Loop for adapted screenplay made me audibly cheer.

-Now to start seeing if I have any way at all of seeing the shorts, the docs, and the foreigns before showtime. Normally I make sure I’ve seen all of the Picture nominees as well, but this year… I do want to see An Education and A Serious Man if I can, but The Blind Side and Precious aren’t a priority. Eight out of ten is good, right?

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