Kinematoscope

And now the big one itself. After covering them in depth elsewhere, let's just briefly list them in reverse order of likelihood.

10. The Blind Side

Quick, what's the only Best Picture nominee without any acting or writing nominations? If you said The Blind Side, you're wrong- it's Avatar, come on. But with only Sandra Bullock's likely win behind it, The Blind Side looks like this year's mediocre film that rode one actress to knocking more deserving fare out of the BP race (last year it was The Reader- heyo!).

9. A Serious Man

Do you think the Coens are starting to wonder if they should try adapting preexisting works more often? Even with a warm critical reception, their ode to late 60s Minneapolis suburban Judaism is an also-ran this year.

7-8. Up, An Education

Thanks for playing, animated films. We'll take you seriously someday. And British films without royalty of some kind? Get real.

6. District 9

In a perfect world, this would be toe-to-toe with Avatar for matching its technical acheivements with, you know, being well-told. But again, we can't all have $150 Milllion promotional budgets.

4-5. Up In The Air, Precious

Can't decide which erstwhile front-runner has fallen into fifth place after looking like a sure thing in September and October, respectively.

3. Inglourious Basterds

What if you make your "masterpiece" and it's just not good enough? Will Tarantino sob quiet at home?

2. Avatar

There seems to be a late swell of supposed support for the juggernaut sci-fi film, but does anyone really want to hear Cameron speak? Ever?

1. The Hurt Locker

It just feels right.