Oscar Nominee Predictions 2011!


Nominations are out tomorrow? Totally snuck up on me this year. Categories not appearing in this list: All three short films, doc feature, foreign film. Didn't see any of 'em.

Sound Mixing:

127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy


Sound Editing:

127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy


I used to think I was good at these categories, then I just realized I was overly proud of myself for being able to tell between them.

Makeup:

Alice In Wonderland
The Way Back
The Wolfman

It seems like it would be easy to pick three out of seven finalists, but I can never call makeup correctly. I looked at the last ten years, and creature-features are pretty consistently nominated, hence The Wolfman. Alice's primary marketing strategy early on was to go "Hey! Look at all the makeup Johnny Depp's wearing! IT IS A LOT OF MAKEUP DON'T YOU THINK?" And there has to be a respectable choice to actually give the award to, which my gut is telling me is The Way Back remarkable sun-bleached and dehydrated faces.

Original Song:

“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from Burlesque
“If I Rise” from 127 Hours
“I See the Light” from Tangled
“We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3
“Shine” from Waiting for Superman

Is it lazy to pick the most obvious one? Probably. But everytime I put a lot of research, trying to listen to as many of the 60ish songs that I can, I get burned by an unpredictable, random slate of nominees. So I feel safe that at least three of these end up vying for the prize: Alan Mencken (Tangled) and Randy Newman (TS3) are returning Disney-winners, A. R. Rahman (127 Hours) of course won with a Slumdog Millionaire song, Cher is Cher I figure (no matter how bad the film is), and the last Davis Guggenheim documentary (An Inconvenient Truth) made Melissa Etheridge an Oscar winner, so why not his new one?

Original Score:

Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Danny Elfman, Alice In Wonderland
John Powell, How To Train Your Dragon
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Hans Zimmer, Inception

Whither Daft Punk, huh? Whither?!

Visual Effects:

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON Legacy

They already narrowed this field down to seven, despite expanding the field to five. So you just have to pick the two that'll miss, in this case Hereafter (one good tsunami, not musch else) and Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World- because the Academy is a noted enemy of fun.

Art Direction:

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Why did the guilds love Alice in Wonderland so much if it was so terrible? True Grit finally gets some respect here at least.

Costumes:

Alice In Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

When Julie Taymour does Shakespeare it always shows up somewhere, even if it's a trainwreck. The other four are foregone conclusions.

Cinematography:

Russell Boyd, The Way Back
Danny Cohen, The King's Speech
Roger F*CKING Deakins, True Grit
Matthew Libitique, Black Swan
Wally Pfister, Inception

Gut feeling on Boyd sneaking in, though it might just be because I saw it three days ago. Pretty sure that's Deakins' legal middle name, by the way.

Editing, Director:

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Why waste space if the five 'real' Best Picture nominees are going to clean house in these two as well? Those directors would be mssrs. Aronofsky, Russell, Nolan, Hooper, and Fincher.

Animated Film:

How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

The need for 16 entries to get five nominees seems dumb- why not just go with whatever gets enough votes? Then we'd have room for the fourth deserving entry, Tangled.

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

I think I read that the powers that be have decided Steinfeld is too young to be a lead actress, history notwithstanding. Otherwise, Adams might drop out.

Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Sorry, La Boeuf (Matt Damon), but Garfield deserves it.

Lead Actress:

Annette Benning, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianna Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Nicole Kidman may have pushed out Williams with a late run in Rabbit Hole, but I just can't take her off the list.

Lead Actor:

Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Again, lots of people are predicting that Gosling will lose out to Robert Duvall in Get Low playing an Old Guy Who Is Old And Stuff, but I just don't see it.

Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay:

The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Best Picture, Original Screenplay:

Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right

Again, why wast column space when our ten BP nominees are evenly split into screenplay groups? 127 Hours has just been fading too far too quickly for me to feel better about it than The Town or Winter's Bone. The Ghost Writer is probably better than three or four of these movies, but will be shut out (unless is sneaks into score or something). Shutter Island's February-release strategy worked out better for the box offic than the awards chances. And I really believe that with a real fall release pattern instead of a last minute "Oh yeah, did that come out?" dumpoff, The Way Back could have won enough voters over.

Totals:

The King's Speech- 11
Black Swan, Inception- 10
The Social Network- 8
The Fighter- 7
True Grit, The Kids Are All Right, Alice in Wonderland, Toy Story 3- 5
127 Hours- 4
The Town, Winter's Bone, Tron: Legacy- 3
Blue Valentine, The Way Back, How To Train Your Dragon- 2
A Bunch Of Other Stuff- 1

1 Response to "Oscar Nominee Predictions 2011!"

  1. What do you think of the nominees?

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