Kinematoscope

An unfocused, lazy wrap-up of the show to follow- for in depth coverage, see the entirety of the rest of the internet/entertainment media.

How did I do?

For the third straight year, I got 16 out of 24 categories correct. So.... at least I'm consistent? I missed two out of the three shorts (which is a win, for me), documentary (picked with my heart on the Banksy thing, not my brain), Art Direction and Costumes (Alice in Wonderland? Seriously?), Score, Song, and Cinematography.

I did beat Dave, though! After beating me 18-16 for the last two years, he finished either at 13 (on the posted predictions from Sunday) or 15 due to some off-the-cuff changes to his paper ballot. Either way, boo yah. This puts us even at 2-2 in four years of blog-prognosticating, including my not-super-impressive 13-11 victory during the No Country For Old Men year.

I get to hold on to the bragging rights for a year, or I would if we were the type of dudes that brag about stuff.

How was the telecast?

I don't care. I really don't. I watch to see the Oscars. The actual statues, handed to people, people that made films. I might have off-hand, armchair opinions about stuff, but I will watch the Oscars no matter what. Next Year they could have Justin Bieber host and use a T-Pain app to auto-tune everyone's acceptance speech.

So from my perspective, they were a success. 24 Oscars were presented. Nobody accidentally choked on one of them. I can intellectually appreciate all of the things people are saying about how Franco and Hathaway did, but I just don't care. Since The Oscars are my superbowl, in my mind they are a thing that happens, that I enjoy even when aesthetically they may be pereceived as unpleasant- I don't complain about when the Superbowl is a blowout, similarly.


How do I feel about the awards themselves?

I'm okay with them. Like anyone pulling for The Social Network and Inception, I had steeled myself emotionally for The King's Speech to win nearly everything, but it lost every single tech award it was up for.

Yes, it lost costumes and art direction to Alice in Wonderland, which seems like it was co-directed by Tim Burton and Spencer's gifts, but score went very deservedly to The Social Network, and Cinematography to Inception.

I'm sure David Fincher will have another day in the sun, possibly with his Dragon Tattoo movie. Nolan I'm less sure will ever jibe with the Academy, but a longstanding, Scorsese-like streak of snubbing is just as fun, really.

The King's Speech is better than Slumdog Millionaire and Crash, anyway, so it isn't a burning injustice.

Now it's time for the post-Oscar doldrums. Sigh.

Here we go again! Note to self- stop picking with your heart. You specifically ran a feature on Friday to get all that out of your system. Be cold and logical.

I know I picked a handful already, but some have waffled- this is the master list.


Best Short Film – Live Action

The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

Did not end up seeing the shorts this year, nor purchasing them on itunes. God of Love seems to be the one that stands out from the pack (three of the other four are mega-depressing, The Crush sounds too slight). If I've learned anything, it's that comedies tend to stand out in the crowd in the short films (see The Other Tenants and West Bank Story the last couple of years).

Will Win: God of Love

Best Short Film – Animated

Day and Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

I think the rule is to make up imaginary criteria to judge this one, because there's no pattern to follow and no easy way to win (not even a Pixar short or a Wallace and Gromit installment is safe anymore). So I say The Gruffalo wins because it is A) The Longest (like last year's Peter and The Wolf) and B) Stuffed with more celebrity voices. Done!

Will Win: The Gruffalo

More...

Best Documentary – Short Subjects

Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Comes Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

What's hot right now among these five serious-minded short docs? The Middle East is a big deal, right?

Will Win: Killing in the Name

Best Documentary

Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

I've only seen Restrepo, so I'm uninformed here as well- I'm going with the late game switch from Inside Job to Exit Through The Gift Shop, though. It's getting all the buzz/graffiti these days.

Will Win: Exit Through The Gift Shop

Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing

I stand by my pick of Inception for all three of these. Winning only these three is known as "Pulling a Bourne Ultimatum," FYI.

Best Original Song

127 Hours – “If I Rise”
Country Strong – “Coming Home”
Tangled – “I See the Light”
Toy Story 3 – “We Belong Together”

It seems to me that every time there's no Seabiscuit-like frontrunner, then you should stay away from the one that everyone's just kinda settled on. That would be the Randy Newman song from Toy Story 3. And I think it would be just like the Academy to spurn him another time for Alan Mencken, the Oscar Winningest person alive.

Will Win/My Vote: Tangled – “I See The Light”

Best Original Score

127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

It hurts my heart to predict Desplat's score for The King's Speech, which mails in the films climax and sub in Beethoven and is otherwise not memorable (especially for such a gifted composer). This is because beyond 127 Hours' score (which was... loud), the remaining three are nearly tied for my favorite score of the year, and I'd be thrilled to see them win.

Will Win: The King's Speech
My Vote: The Social Network

Best Make Up

Barney’s Vision
The Way Back
The Wolfman

See here.

Will Win: The Wolfman
My Vote: The Way Back

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Continue seeing here.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: True Grit

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and Deathly Hollows: Part One
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Art Direction, my yearly pick to go rogue. I think that The King's Speech has lost a little bit of steam- not much, but enough to lose this category. Logic would dictate that a Tim Burton film would be a likely upset pick, but Alice In Wonderland was apparently terrible. So I say Inception gets a well-deserved fourth win here. This isn't emotional, I swear.

Will Win/My Vote: Inception

Best Editing

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

The only guild award that The Social Network picked up will hold true tonight. Call it a consolation prize.

Will Win/My Vote: The Social Network

Best Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

ROGER F*CKING DEAKINS for the win!

Will Win/My Vote: True Grit

Best Foreign Language Film

Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

Dogtooth is enjoyable effed up, but I imagine (without having seen anything else) that there were better foreign films out there last year. In another abrupt reversal, I'm going with Bier's In A Better World. I have an unresearched theory that second nominations in this category (she had After The Wedding a few years back) give you a leg up.

Will Win: In A Better World

Best Animated Film

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Cars 2? Seriously Pixar?

Will Win: Toy Story 3
My Vote: How to Train Your Dragon

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

This is a bigger lock than some sort of giant padlock or something.

Will Win/My Vote: The Social Network

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

INT. BUCKINGHAM PALACE: The King looks aggrieved.

KING: Er.. Ah... (stammers, is handsome)

HARVEY WEINSTEIN: Ka-Ching!

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Like I said, I don't feel good enough about The King's Speech's momentum to call Carter for the upset here. And even though Melissa Leo has lost a lot a buzz, I can't make a case for anyone else winning. Boring, I know...

Will Win: Melissa Leo – The Fighter
My Vote: Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Bale sealed the deal with a solid speech at the Golden Globes. But I'd have voted for John Hawkes, Ozark badass.

Will Win: Christian Bale – The Fighter
My Vote: John Hawkes- Winter's Bone

Best Actress

Annette Benning – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Natalie Portman picks up an easy win for extending that scene in every movie where she freaks the hell out to feature length. Of the choices available to me, I'd give Lawrence a slight edge over Williams.

Will Win: Natalie Portman – Black Swan
My Vote: Jennifer Lawrence- Winter's Bone

Best Actor

Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours

Colin Firth again, just had to be his Colin Firthiest. Eisenberg had to be unlikeable but compelling, in a very subtle way.

Will Win: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
My Vote: Jesse Eisenberg- The Social Network

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Ethan and Joel Coen – True Grit
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hopper – The King’s Speech
David O. Russell – The Fighter

It's been a long while since I've seen such a major award with such an even split among prognosticators. Hooper and Fincher are in a dead heat, mostly due to Fincher's surprising BAFTA win (after Hooper's even more surprising DGA award). I'm officially siding on the depressingly undeserved choice of Hooper, if only because the DGA is nearly never wrong.

In terms of precedent, this battle feels more like Million Dollar Baby vs. The Aviator (where Eastwood and the character-based movie beat the more technically impressive foe in both) than Traffic vs. Gladiator (where period piece Gladiator nabbed Best Picture despite losing Editing and Director to Traffic).

Will Win: Tom Hooper- The King's Speech
My Vote: David Fincher – The Social Network

Best Picture

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

I will say that there's no The Blind Side this year, and that I enjoyed all ten movies when I saw them. The Kids Are All Right is by far the most over-hyped to me (just as much as The King's Speech, but to a lesser degree). The ten nominee format still amounts to an empty gesture for the bottom nominees, but this year it was noticeably harder to say which five would've composed the small field (Though clearly True Grit had the edge over Inception, in the final analysis).

With time, The King's Speech over The Social Network isn't going to seem as bad as it does right now, or as bad as the other famous disputed Best Pictures. But that doesn't mean there's not a part of my brain screaming at me to make this pick differently (it won editing! it could win Director! Screenplay is in the bag! How could a film win those three and not Best Picture?) Quiet, brain! The King's Speech it is.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Best Picture Ballot…

10. The Kids Are All Right
9. The King's Speech
8. The Fighter
7. 127 Hours
6. Black Swan
5. Toy Story 3
4. Inception
3. True Grit
2. Winter's Bone
1. The Social Network

Dave was much more timely about getting this done than I, so look for mine to post in another few hours, and also shamelessly rip off his Will Win/ My Vote format!- Duncan

Best Short Film – Live Action

The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

I don’t have a horse in this race. I have not seen or heard anything about any of these films. Random guessing to ensue!

Will Win: Wish 143

Best Short Film – Animated

Day and Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

I saw Day and Night because it was in front of Toy Story 3. Otherwise, I have not seen any of these. So…

Will Win/My Vote: Day and Night

More...

Best Documentary – Short Subjects

Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Comes Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

I am drawing nothing on this category either. I hear films whose titles are similar to Rage Against the Machine lyrics have great Academy success.

Will Win: Killing in the Name

Best Documentary

Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Finally, I have some vested interest in a category. I saw Gasland, Restrepo, and Waste Land. However, many prognosticators have Inside Job and Exit through the Gift Shop are the frontrunners. There seems to be something engaging about Exit through the Gift Shop, but I do not feel the Academy will feel the same way.

Will Win: Inside Job
My Vote: Gasland

Best Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part One
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

This category seems pretty straight forward, except for the lack of recognition for The Social Network’s Winkelvii.

Will Win/My Vote: Inception

Best Sound Editing

Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

After years of confusion, I now get the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. I will include it in my book: Academy Awards for Dummies.

Will Win/My Vote: Tron: Legacy

Best Sound Mixing

Inception
The King’s Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

I think this category is the start of The King’s Speech’s run…

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception (with The Social Network a close second)

Best Original Song

127 Hours – “If I Rise”
Country Strong – “Coming Home”
Tangled – “I See the Light”
Toy Story 3 – “We Belong Together”

I feel that I am tempting fate if I go against Toy Story 3. It would be nice to see Dido with an Oscar though.

Will Win: Toy Story 3 – “We Belong Together”
My Vote: 127 Hours – “If I Rise”

Best Original Score

127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

This was a tough category to choose a winner. For me, the two frontrunners are Zimmer’s electronic-based score from Inception, and Ross and Reznor’s whirlwind from The Social Network. Ultimately, Ross and Reznor will take the top prize.

Will Win: The Social Network
My Vote: Inception

Best Make Up

Barney’s Vision
The Way Back
The Wolfman

I saw The Wolfman… On Cinemax… I did not enjoy it.

Will Win/My Vote: The Way Back

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

I am immediately drawn to Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood) and The Tempest (Sandy Powell). However, I feel that The King’s Speech (Jenny Beavan) will take the prize.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Alice in Wonderland

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and Deathly Hollows: Part One
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

All worthy entries, but my choice and what will win are two different choices. The King’s Speech historical re-creation will take the prize. However, my personal choice is for Inception because after watching it on Blu-Ray I saw a lot of little set details that I previously missed.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception

Best Editing

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

It has often been said that the winner of this award will be a predictor of who wins Best Picture. I think it will not hold true this year, as The Social Network picks up the win here.

Will Win/My Vote: The Social Network

Best Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

After nine nominations, it’s Roger F. Deakins’ time.

Will Win/My Vote: True Grit

Best Foreign Language Film

Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

I have not seen any of these. I hear Dogtooth is supposed to be nutty, while Biutiful is supposed to be gritty. I like my films a bit nutty. I cannot throw any weight behind Outside the Law because I would blindly say it stars Steven Seagal.

Will Win: Incendies (because Ebert said so)
My Vote: Dogtooth

Best Animated Film

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

If gambling on the Academy Awards happened with a higher frequency, Toy Story 3’s odds would be 1-20 at this point.

Will Win: Toy Story 3
My Vote: How to Train Your Dragon

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Duh.

Will Win/My Vote: The Social Network

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Even with a weird and controversial (to some) campaign, Leo Will Win this award for a very good performance in a very good movie. I feel that Adams did more with her particular role and I found it more enjoyable.

Will Win: Melissa Leo – The Fighter
My Vote: Amy Adams – The Fighter (with Steinfeld getting a lot of consideration)

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Since Rush won the BAFTA, there is an awful a lot of speculation that he could win the prize over Bale. The lesson to be had is: Talk is cheap. Bale wins the category, as he should. Even though I would like to see Hawkes win and deliver a speech in character from Eastbound and Down.

Will Win/My Vote: Christian Bale – The Fighter

Best Actress

Annette Benning – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

This category, along with Adapted Screenplay, is the easiest pick of the night. Bet the farm.

Will Win/My Vote: Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Best Actor

Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours

I have not even seen The King’s Speech, but how can I go against the awesome Firth?

Will Win/My Vote: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Ethan and Joel Coen – True Grit
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hopper – The King’s Speech
David O. Russell – The Fighter

Personally, this was the toughest voting category for me. I have always admitted and greatly enjoyed the work of Aronofsky, Fincher, and the Coen Brothers. Aronofsky has always presented a fresh approach on matters, while making films that are as moving as they are disturbing. Fincher is the consummate professional who steadies and ship he controls. The Coen Brothers always have their uniquely brilliant spin. David O. Russell did a great job on The Fighter, but there was a lot of talent in front of the camera, so was he merely regulated to a game manager? Tom Hopper, while John Adams was great television, is too new to the arena to get consideration from me. Besides, he suffers from the similar plight that Russell does with all the talent in The King’s Speech being in front of the camera.

Will Win: David Fincher – The Social Network
My Vote: Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan

Best Picture

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

While this year’s field is pretty good, I do feel that The Town should have made the cut over 127 Hours or The Kids Are All Right. I believe Black Swan was the Best Picture of the year, but it has no shot in winning this award. This category is a two horse race between The Social Network and The King’s Speech. Ultimately, The King’s Speech will win the year’s biggest accolade, even though I disagree with that.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Best Picture Ballot…

10. The Kids Are All Right
9. Winter’s Bone
8. The King’s Speech
7. 127 Hours
6. Toy Story 3
5. The Fighter
4. True Grit
3. Inception
2. The Social Network
1. Black Swan

Today, we'll look at some of the artier tech awards, and of course we'll also form some definite opinions that will turn out to be way off!

Best Makeup

Barney's Version- Adrien Morot (0/0)
The Way Back- Edouard F. Henriques (0/2), Greg Funk (0/0), Yolanda Toussieng (2/3)
The Wolfman- Rick Baker(6/11), Dave Elsey (0/1)

Research for this category revealed a fun fact: there is an Oscar-winning makeup artist (Braveheart) named 'Peter Frampton'! I think that must have an effect on that guy's life that is the exact opposite of the fictional 'Michael Bolton' in Office Space.

Anyhow- we meet again, Rick Baker. Will your flashy, more-is-more approach to hair and claws beat out two films that no one has seen? Of course it will.

Though the blistering heat-stroke of The Way Back (which I saw) and aging effects in Barney's Version (which I didn't) may be fine enough, Baker is this category's only superstar- and he took the inaugural win in it for An American Werewolf in London, besides.

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland- Robert Stromberg (1/2), Karen O'Hara (0/1)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1- Stuart Craig (3/8), Stephenie McMillan (1/3)
Inception Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Douglas A. Mowat (all 0/0)
The King's Speech- Eve Stewart (0/1), Judy Farr (0/0)
True Grit- Jess Gonchor (0/0), Nancy Haigh (1/5)

It would seem that the heavyweights in this category are the Harry Potter team, but Oscar logic dictates that they will have to wait for the last film in the series to add another win (so mark that in for next year).

Look for The King's Speech to pick this up on its way to a near-sweep. True Grit feels like the only possible spoiler to me, if voters are feeling nostalgic for America instead of Britain.

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland- Colleen Atwood (2/8)
I Am Love- Antonella Cannarozzi (0/0)
The King's Speech- Jenny Beavan (1/8)
The Tempest- Sandy Powell (3/8)
True Grit- Mary Zophres (0/0)

Three heavyweights in this category, but do we even need to think about it? If there's a category that loves British royalty movies even more than the Academy at large, it's this one, so put another in The King's Speech column. True Grit seems like the potential spoiler here as well, mostly because recent winners Atwood and Powell both worked on critically frowned-upon films.

Best Animated Feature

How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Included here with little fanfare because there's nothing left to say about Pixar and its dominance. Hopefully the upcoming Cars 2 will be terrible and we can all take glee in how they've sold out.

Coming up later today: Score and Song, which I always have a lot to say about.

Oscar prognosticating is the bread and butter here at Kinematoscope, but the late-game reversal of fortune in the race has sapped my enthusiasm for it this year.

So instead of the month-long Oscarthon, we'll have an abbreviated Oscar week, with some longer posts leading up to the ceremony. Today, some technical awards!



Best Sound Editing

Inception- Richard King (2/3)
Toy Story 3- Tom Myers (0/2), Michael Silvers (1/5)
TRON: Legacy- Gwendolyn Yates Whittle (0/1), Addison Teague (0/0)
True Grit- Skip Lievsay (0/3), Craig Berkey (0/2)
Unstoppable- Mark Stoeckinger (0/2)

Since it bears repeating every year, this category pertains to the creation of sound effects, mostly. So it's the guys making footsteps on foley stages and recording elephants to stand in for aliens, and so on. The consensus seems to be that any time there's an actiony blockbuster with critical respect, it takes it- last year The Hurt Locker broke this rule, but since Inception fits the bill and is still a huge underdog for other awards, it seems like an easy walk for their soundpeople this year.

I can't argue- they did have to decide what Paris folding in on itself would sound like, after all. Repeat viewings make the scene where everything explodes for no reason seem like shameless Tech-baiting, as well.



Best Sound Mixing

Inception- Lora Hirschberg (0/1), Gary Rizzo (0/2), Ed Novick (0/2)
The King's Speech- Paul Hamblin (0/0), Martin Jensen (0/0), John Midgley (0/1)
Salt- Jeffrey J. Haboush (0/1), William Sarokin (0/0), Scott Millan (4/7), Greg P. Russell (0/13)
The Social Network- Ren Klyce (0/2), David Parker (2/5), Michael Semanick (2/7), Mark Weingarten (0/1)
True Grit- Skip Lievsay (0/3), Craig Berkey (0/2), Greg Orloff (1/2), Peter Kurland (0/2)

The Susan Lucci of the season is Salt's Greg P. Russell, now on his fourteenth nomination without a trophy to show for it- he was partners for a long time with current record holder Kevin O'Connell (0/20). But no one's giving Salt an Oscar, get real- it's one of the few nominees for anything that I haven't seen, because it sounds ridiculous (if competently made).

Inception looks primed to win here as well- bear in mind I've gotten both of the sound categories wrong for three straight years, though. Mixing, in particular, seems harder to predict, because the two front runners for Best Picture have elbowed their way into the field. I can think of no compelling argument for The King's Speech, sonically, but The Social Network has the much heralded scene in which Eisenberg and Timberlake have to shout a long, complex conversation over the din of a nightclub (see above). That could draw some votes.



Best Visual Effects

Alice In Wonderland- Ken Ralston (4/6), David Schaub (0/0), Carey Villegas (0/0), Sean Phillips (0/0)
Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows: Pt 1- Tim Burke (1/2), John Richardson (1/4), Christian Manz (0/0), Nicolas Aithadi (0/0)
Hereafter- Michael Owens (0/0), Bryan Grill (0/0), Stephan Trojansky (0/0), Joe Farrell (0/0)
Inception- Chris Corbould (0/1), Andrew Lockley (0/0), Pete Bebb (0/0), Paul J. Franklin (0/1)
Iron Man 2- Janek Sirrs (1/1), Ben Snow (0/3), Ged Wright (0/0), Daniel Sudick (0/3)

I'm not sure if the expansion to five nominees will make this category easier or harder to predict. In any case, recent history has provided us with one slam-dunk nominee to choose every year, except for the year they reminded us that quantity does not equal quality by dismissing Transformers. This year the showiest, largest effects picture is also the lone BP nominee, so Inception will take this one easily- my favorite part is that the most memorable effect, in this age of CGI trickery, was the old-school spinning hallway fight, achieved by simply rotating the entire set.

So mark this one down in pen, not pencil. Inception is on pace for a sweep! Also, I highly recommend the VFX featurette embedded above for the criminally-snubbed TRON: Legacy, because not only is it neat, but it eschews the usual talking heads and the "Let's Explain What The Film's About, Even Though Anyone Who Cares Enough To Watch This Already Knows" nonsense common to featurettes.

Best Documentary Feature

Exit Through the Gift Shop
GasLand
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Best Foreign Film

Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

These will be the only two categories in which I haven't seen all or most of the nominees, because I just don't watch enough documentaries and the foreign films take forever to get here. As notable as Banksy's street-art campaign in LA for Gift Shop has been, I'm betting on the timelier and indisputably not staged Inside Job to take it. Maybe the director will also wear a gorilla mask, just 'cause?

And Foreign? Who knows? In years of going on the record, I've only gotten this category right once, and that was on an easy, Holocaust-based call (The Counterfeiters). I feel pretty confident that the only one I have seen, Dogtooth, is too crazy to win, and also that Biutiful will lose simply for being the recognizable one that we all expect. Susanne Bier's In a Better World will also be a popular choice, given her name recognition, so nay on that. I'm going with Outside The Law- it's a period piece, which breaks the tie with Incendies.

Thus concludes part one. Stay tuned for more predictions. I promise not to pick with my heart this year.

I had a revelation today- following the Oscar race like I do means the only possible reaction I can have to the annual nominee announcements is anger.

For example, I long expected that Daft Punk's score for TRON wouldn't come anywhere near a nomination, so when it didn't, in fact, get one I felt nothing. Even though that score is hands down my favorite score of the year, and made its film infinitely better.

I didn't expect, as nearly everyone didn't, Christopher Nolan to get the shaft AGAIN, and Inception to get further dissed in the Editing category. This is because he's been included by the guild, the BAFTAs, virtually every awards-type-thing that has space for five directors has had the same five, but the Academy up and decided the Coen brothers were better.

Now, I didn't expect Inception to win for Director, or Editing, so it really is pretty meaningless news, but I didn't see it coming, so I was mad.

But just because AMPAS is trying to goad Nolan into breaking down and making a Holocaust movie, we shouldn't take their capricious decisions to heart- they don't mean anything, not when films mean something to us.

It's all what we make of it. In that spirit, things that were great about the announcements:

-Winter's Bone gets four nominations! John Hawkes as well, officially moving him past 'Hey It's That Guy!' status, which is long overdue.

-I did enjoy True Grit quite a whole lot, so its somewhat surprising 10 nominations is pretty cool, even coming at Inception's expense. I'm starting to think that this is finally cinematographer Roger F*cking Deakins' year.

-THERE IS AN ANIMATED SHORT NOMINATED CALLED 'THE LOST THING' BY SHAUN TAN! THIS IS THE REASON CAPSLOCK WAS INVENTED!

-Even without Daft Punk, the score category has three of my faves: John Powell's stirring How To Train Your Dragon work, Hans Zimmer frantic Inception strings, and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross' progessive, amazing soundscapes for The Social Network.

-Even though it's been cleaning up to this point, the love for The Social Network is still gratifying, with eight nominations total. Except for the two supporting categories, it'll be going toe-to-toe with The King's Speech come Oscar day (contemporary dramas never get considered for Costumes or Art Direction, so those don't count as an advantage).

Finally, how did I do? Middling to well, I reckon. 79% overall (75/95), 85% in the Big Eight categories (38/45). The only categories in which I predicted every nominee were Best Supporting Actress (which everyone got) and Animated Film (which also wasn't that hard).

Early predictions for Oscar Sunday- it looks bleak now, but I just can't see The Social Network losing, not after the run it's had. It pulls in 5 trophies (Picture, Director, Ad. Screenplay, Editing, and Score) to The King's Speech's 3 or 4 (Actor, Or. Screen, and Art Direction for sure, maybe Costume). The Social Network could even take home Sound Mixing, too, since the Oscars are hating on Inception so much. True Grit for Cinematography, I feel good about it in costume for some reason, and Hailee Steinfeld is the only acting nominee with a shot at upsetting the frontrunner (Leo). Firth, Portman, and Bale are locked in. Toy Story 3 already got the Animated Oscar in the mail, and Randy Newman wins another Original song Oscar.

Is that everything? Oh, Inside Job for documentary and Inception consoles itself with Sound Editing and Visual Effects.

Also Foreign Film will go to something I don't pick. You heard it here first!

Nominations are out tomorrow? Totally snuck up on me this year. Categories not appearing in this list: All three short films, doc feature, foreign film. Didn't see any of 'em.

Sound Mixing:

127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy

Sound Editing:

127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy

I used to think I was good at these categories, then I just realized I was overly proud of myself for being able to tell between them.

Makeup:

Alice In Wonderland
The Way Back
The Wolfman

It seems like it would be easy to pick three out of seven finalists, but I can never call makeup correctly. I looked at the last ten years, and creature-features are pretty consistently nominated, hence The Wolfman. Alice's primary marketing strategy early on was to go "Hey! Look at all the makeup Johnny Depp's wearing! IT IS A LOT OF MAKEUP DON'T YOU THINK?" And there has to be a respectable choice to actually give the award to, which my gut is telling me is The Way Back remarkable sun-bleached and dehydrated faces.

Original Song:

“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from Burlesque
“If I Rise” from 127 Hours
“I See the Light” from Tangled
“We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3
“Shine” from Waiting for Superman

Is it lazy to pick the most obvious one? Probably. But everytime I put a lot of research, trying to listen to as many of the 60ish songs that I can, I get burned by an unpredictable, random slate of nominees. So I feel safe that at least three of these end up vying for the prize: Alan Mencken (Tangled) and Randy Newman (TS3) are returning Disney-winners, A. R. Rahman (127 Hours) of course won with a Slumdog Millionaire song, Cher is Cher I figure (no matter how bad the film is), and the last Davis Guggenheim documentary (An Inconvenient Truth) made Melissa Etheridge an Oscar winner, so why not his new one?

Original Score:

Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Danny Elfman, Alice In Wonderland
John Powell, How To Train Your Dragon
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Hans Zimmer, Inception

Whither Daft Punk, huh? Whither?!

Visual Effects:

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON Legacy

They already narrowed this field down to seven, despite expanding the field to five. So you just have to pick the two that'll miss, in this case Hereafter (one good tsunami, not musch else) and Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World- because the Academy is a noted enemy of fun.

Art Direction:

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Why did the guilds love Alice in Wonderland so much if it was so terrible? True Grit finally gets some respect here at least.

Costumes:

Alice In Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

When Julie Taymour does Shakespeare it always shows up somewhere, even if it's a trainwreck. The other four are foregone conclusions.

Cinematography:

Russell Boyd, The Way Back
Danny Cohen, The King's Speech
Roger F*CKING Deakins, True Grit
Matthew Libitique, Black Swan
Wally Pfister, Inception

Gut feeling on Boyd sneaking in, though it might just be because I saw it three days ago. Pretty sure that's Deakins' legal middle name, by the way.

Editing, Director:

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Why waste space if the five 'real' Best Picture nominees are going to clean house in these two as well? Those directors would be mssrs. Aronofsky, Russell, Nolan, Hooper, and Fincher.

Animated Film:

How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

The need for 16 entries to get five nominees seems dumb- why not just go with whatever gets enough votes? Then we'd have room for the fourth deserving entry, Tangled.

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

I think I read that the powers that be have decided Steinfeld is too young to be a lead actress, history notwithstanding. Otherwise, Adams might drop out.

Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Sorry, La Boeuf (Matt Damon), but Garfield deserves it.

Lead Actress:

Annette Benning, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianna Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Nicole Kidman may have pushed out Williams with a late run in Rabbit Hole, but I just can't take her off the list.

Lead Actor:

Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Again, lots of people are predicting that Gosling will lose out to Robert Duvall in Get Low playing an Old Guy Who Is Old And Stuff, but I just don't see it.

Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay:

The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Best Picture, Original Screenplay:

Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right

Again, why wast column space when our ten BP nominees are evenly split into screenplay groups? 127 Hours has just been fading too far too quickly for me to feel better about it than The Town or Winter's Bone. The Ghost Writer is probably better than three or four of these movies, but will be shut out (unless is sneaks into score or something). Shutter Island's February-release strategy worked out better for the box offic than the awards chances. And I really believe that with a real fall release pattern instead of a last minute "Oh yeah, did that come out?" dumpoff, The Way Back could have won enough voters over.

Totals:

The King's Speech- 11
Black Swan, Inception- 10
The Social Network- 8
The Fighter- 7
True Grit, The Kids Are All Right, Alice in Wonderland, Toy Story 3- 5
127 Hours- 4
The Town, Winter's Bone, Tron: Legacy- 3
Blue Valentine, The Way Back, How To Train Your Dragon- 2
A Bunch Of Other Stuff- 1