Kinematoscope

It bugs me when people say things like "this was a pretty weak year for movies."

First of all, that's not something we can judge until AT LEAST five years afterward. Secondly, you just have to know where to look.

Despite the internet seemingly concurring that this was a down year, I found myself wanting to do a top 20 instead of a top 10. So here's the first half of the best 2010 had to offer.


20. Solitary Man

Thoroughly overshadowed by the misguided Wall Street sequel, Brian Koppelman and David Levien's quiet, thoughtful rumination on the Michael Douglas archetype came and went quickly at the end of the summer.

Playing a literal used-car-salesman, Douglas explores the fallout that the womanizing and swindling Gordon-Gekko-types would eventually face in real life.

The early plot hinges on the character's extreme reaction to not-that-extreme medical news, but stays low-key and believable the rest of the way. Douglas does some fine work, and supporting turns from Jesse Eisenberg, Mary-Louise Parker, Jenna Fischer, and even Danny DeVito make it a memorable film.



19. The American

Beautiful, beautiful film from photographer and music-video-director Anton Corbijn. Very sparse and very quiet, so I can see why it didn't catch on in a big way. George Clooney is also pretty good, even if the script is too spare to make the ending as heartbreaking as it wanted to be.

18. 127 Hours

My initial response to the film was just north of ambivalent, but it's grown on me since. By the time I ended up writing about it at length for the movie-blog association, I found myself arguing for its relative subtlety, as loud and Danny-Boyle-y as it is.

17. The Town

(reviewed already here)

Question: film-setting-wise, is Boston the new New York? Discuss.


16. I Am Love

A little soapy, to be sure, but worth it for the cinematography and Tilda Swinton- who can switch from unsettlingly androgynous mode to fabulous just like that, it turns out.



15. Shutter Island

Shutter Island was top ten for me until the end. A full five minutes of Ben Kinglsey explaining every little damn thing, straight down to a full-on, facepalm-inducing anagram.

I've said this before, but can we most past names that are anagrams in movies as a society? That's something that the lame twin in Adaptation would think was awesome.

So as well-made as Shutter Island is in every other respect, the hand-holding makes it vastly inferior to something like Spider. But no Oscar nominations?

14. Tangled

Tangled, too, was in the running for the top half until the big finale sidelined the heroine and turned on a deus ex machina. But it was witty, well-CGIed, and swiftly paced.


13. Mother

On the other hand, Mother has an ending that just amplifies everything that's come before, even if you were to guess it beforehand- which I didn't, I was too enthralled by Hye-ja Kim's performance.



12. Never Let Me Go

Still not sure how much of my goodwill comes from just having read Ishiguro's beautiful novel just beforehand, but credit to the movie that I could do so and not immediately find flaws in the adaptation of it. Mulligan, Knightley and Garfield all acquit themselves well.

My only complaint would be that the casting for the younger version of Mulligan was so spot-on that it made the other two younger characters less believable.

11. Toy Story 3

You cried too. Admit it.

Tomorrow, the top ten!

Welcome to a new feature, featuring quick, much breezier reviews of movies that either are not on imdb's top 250 (and a few from 160-250 that weren't on it before).

In short, just random stuff. A chief motivation for this is that I recently signed up for Netflix instant, which is probably the reason the internet was invented in the first place. And it's only eight bucks a month, which is less than the cost of one movie ticket.

Now, I know that the top 250 entries can get kind of silly, but these will be even sillier, mostly because the majority of what I find to watch is screwball comedies. Let's get started!


My Man Godfrey

What is it?

A classic screwball, one that falls squarely into the 'Rich People Be Crazy' sub-genre. I would guess that people liked to mock the wealthy during the Great Depression, and this was right in the middle of it (1936).

Who's Godfrey, then?

He's a forgotten man, played by the super-suave William Powell, that two daffy rich sisters try to recruit as part of a scavenger hunt. He pushes the arrogant sister into an ash pile, and accompanies the nicer (but considerably wackier) one to help her win the hunt. She hires him as the new family butler, which leads to both sisters and the family maid falling in love with him.

How creepy is the age difference?

As we'll soon see, this is an essential question of pretty much every old movie that features romance of any kind, even silly romance like My Man Godfrey. In this case we have Powell, 44, eventually ending up with Carole Lombard, 28. So... just a little creepy.

Though for a good portion of the movie I thought Godfrey was headed toward the other sister, played by the 25-year-old Gail Patrick. The actress playing the maid (Jean Dixon) was 40, incidentally.

Is there a wacky foreign dude?

Of course there is! Seemingly a staple of lampooning high society, here we get Carlo, a piano 'prodigy' that the mother of the family is 'mentoring,' who only seems to know one song (and is constantly stuffing his face with food, or acting like a monkey to amuse his benefactor).

Should it be on the countdown?

I say yes, but just barely. Here's the thing: it's wonderfully funny, with plenty of great quips from Powell (and Eugene Pallette, who played a lot of rich fathers back in the day), but Carole Lombard rubbed me the wrong way. She just seemed shrill and nuts and stalkery.

This could be just me- after all, Katherine Hepburn does mostly the same thing in Bringing Up Baby and it worked for me then. But Powell seems to have a lot more chemistry with the other, haughtier daughter, Gail Patrick. There's even a movement to their relationship during the story, wherein she tries to frame him for theivery and eventually realizes how shallow she's been.

Lombard just doggedly clings to Powell until, dazed, she arranges to marry him at the film's end. What?

Also in favor of the film is the inventive title sequence, which is a long pan over marquee lights (as in the still above).

It's easy to think of classic films as unimpeachable works of art- chiseled from stone, woven in tapestry. The vision, perhaps, of a black and white auteur, or the product of the finely-tuned studio system of yore. But the greatest films often have the most slipshod, haphazard tales of development: take 1946's The Big Sleep, for example.

After the best-picture triumph of Casablanca, it probably seemed like a no-brainer to cast Humphrey Bogart as another ambivalent wiseguy trying to live under Vichy rules with a piano-playing sidekick. So Howard Hawks enlisted a broke William Faulkner to transpose Hemingway's To Have and Have Not to WWII France. Despite the extensive pedigrees of those four men, the show was stolen by a nineteen-year-old Harper's Bazaar cover model named Lauren Bacall- her rapport with the middle-aged Bogart resulted in her part enlarging considerably.

And so it would be for Hawks/Bogart/Bacall volume two: give the people what they want. It turns out they want star power, sexual chemistry, long horse-racing double entendres, and classic noir.

The Key Players

Howard Hawks comes back to the countdown after two screwball comedies, Bogart we saw once, later in his all-too-brief careeer.

It was actually Hawks' wife Nancy that spotted Betty Joan Peske, soon to be rechristened Lauren Bacall, on a magazine and urged Howard to give her a screen test. The legend has it that both Hawks and Bogart (also married) fell in love with the young starlet during filming of To Have and Have Not, with bitterness resulting when she chose Bogart. Nevertheless, after imitating life in art with four successful thrillers together (Dark Passage and Key Largo being the other two), Bacall would also prove adept at comedy (How To Marry A Millionaire, Designing Woman) drama (Written on the Wind), and stage-work, winning two Tonys before an obligatory "It's Lauren Bacall!" Oscar nomination in 1996 (The Mirror Has Two Faces) and honorary statuette in 2009.

Martha Vickers takes the only other substantial role, in her biggest career success- though that might not be the case if she hadn't died in early middle age from esophogeal cancer, just like Bogart. Elisha Cook from The Killing also pops up- I think he was mostly cast to make the 5'8" Bogart look taller.



More...

The Story:

Raymond Chandler's classic gumshoe novel is rightly famous, not just for having a whole lot of twists and turns, but just the right amount of them: not so many as to be ludicrous, not so few as to be easy to guess the end.

We start with Bogart, aka most famous shamus ever Phillip Marlowe, arriving at the house of his latest client, Old Rich Father (General Sternwood). First he meets Carmen Sternwood (Vickers), whom we'll refer to as Crazed Sexpot Daughter. This is established in a wonderful scene featuring a metajoke about Bogart's height and possibly the shortest shorts available in 1946- also she tries to sit in his lap while he's standing.

Anyway, Crazed Sexpot Daughter has some gambling debts with a Fake Book Dealer, and Old Rich Father wants Marlowe to get her off the hook. Simple enough.

But wait- Vivian Rutledge (Bacall), the other daughter (and presumably a widow? This is never explained) thinks Marlowe's really been called in to look into the dissapearance of her father's Ex-Right Hand Man, who ran off with the wife of a Scary Casino Owner some months before.

Got all that? Marlowe does some simple recon, following the Fake Book Dealer from his Fake Bookshop to his house, only to hear a gunshot and a scream. He storms in to find a drug-addled Crazed Sexpot Daughter, a dead Fake Book Dealer, and a hidden camera with missing film.

Marlowe takes the girl home, but soon Vivian is blackmailed with the compromising picture of Crazed Sexpot Daughter from the camera (the contents of the photo are never explained), and goes to our man for help. But is Vivian in cahoots with the Scary Casino Owner, who was coincidentally the Fake Book Dealer's landlord, and incidentally doesn't seem to care at all about his wife running off with the Ex-Right-Hand-Man?

I'm pretty sure the suspense is gripping!

The Artistry

It's not proper film-nerd behavior to watch The Big Lebowski two dozen times before ever seeing actual noir staples like The Big Sleep, but that's what I ended up doing. I actually even saw The Maltese Falcon last month in the theater!

I even saw the random Smallville episode where Jimmy Olsen gets knocked out and has an elaborate noir fantasy after watching The Big Sleep before I saw The Big Sleep! But better late than never.

And even with too many shady thugs, offscreen murders and double crosses to really keep track of the first time through, there's a familiar rhythm and atmosphere that makes it a pleasure to watch. Marlowe falls in love with Vivian Rutledge because he always does, because she's a woman with a troubled past who needs his help. He gets roughed up by some thugs because he's ignored multiple warnings to stop looking, even after his client says to stop (technically his actual case ends when the Fake Book Dealer is shot).

My favorite character is not Marlowe, however, it's a character never seen onscreen named Owen Taylor. The Sternwood family driver, he is at one point in possession of the scandalous photo- a dumb thug named Joe Brody admits later that he knocked Taylor out and took them, to blackmail Vivian with.

But Owen Taylor still ends up dead, his car twelve feet under the ocean. But who killed him? Brody had no reason to (and no reason to hide it, if he had). The legend is that when Hawks and co. found this plothole, production halted for two days while the screenwriters combed over the book to figure it out. When they couldn't, they telegrammed Chandler himself... who admitted that he didn't know, either.

How awesome is that? Owen Taylor, killed by the plot itself! The very mood of The Big Sleep killed him, because it needed a second body to raise the stakes, and there he was: alone, unconcious, on the side of the road. Absorbed by the shadowy fog and washed out to sea. Owen Taylor is my new go-to reference for plot holes in great films- films great enough that the plot holes hardly matter.

It makes The Big Sleep even better, because there's no way a plot that messy could tie up entirely neatly, is there?

Anyway, the cast is of course excellent, even if the Bogie/Bacall phenomenon threatens to hijack the entire film (more on this later). Vickers shines in her few scenes (according to Chandler, her role was diminished because she was acting circles around Bacall), and all the character-actors as minor stooges acquit themselves just as well. Elisha Cook plays a doomed go-between with such frank earnestness that even Marlowe takes a shine to the guy.

The score I found a pretty typical "OH NO! SOMETHING BAD OR DRAMATIC IS HAPPENING" big band warble, and the noir shadows were familiarly non-descript. The crackling dialogue was filled with some wonderful lines- all my favorites I'll throw in Leftover Thoughts.

The only knock against The Big Sleep is really against the goddamned Hayes Code, anyway- racy and lewd things are left in the film but just obliquely hinted at, like the photo, or a key homosexual relationship. And the ending is softened a bit, as we'll see.

So studio pressure, a mystery killing, and the Hayes Code all mucked The Big Sleep about, and the result was still great. Just goes to show.

THE ENDING! SPOILERS THAT ARE PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE TO KEEP TRACK OF ANYWAY!

Let me preface this by saying this is uneccesarily long and largely so I can keep it all straight for myself:

So...Marlowe tracks down the blackmailers and, despite interference from both sisters, reclaims the photo from Joe Brody, who got it from Owen Taylor (who killed the Fake Book Dealer and took the film because he's in love with Crazed Sexpot Daughter, or was) and a woman named Agnes, who was the Fake Book Dealer's assistant.

Then some random dude (that the film never bothers to mention was the dead guy's gay lover) mistakenly kills Brody in revenge.

Vivian, assuming the case is now over since her sister's debts are gone, and the murder of the Fake Book Dealer is solved (WHAT ABOUT YOUR DRIVER, OWEN TAYLOR, HUH!?), flirts with Marlowe until she realizes that he's not done with the case.

Even though she and the Scary Casino owner stage an elaborate show to throw him off the trail, Marlowe doggedly follows the right people at the right moments until Agnes tips him off to the location of the Casino Owner's wife (after a poor stooge in love with her gets killed delivering the message, which means Marlowe is really Not Letting It Go).

He goes to a secluded cabin to find said Wife, but also Vivian and some henchman that knocks him over the head and ties him up. But Vivian sets him free, long enough to shoot the henchman and drive her back to the house that the Scary Casino Owner owns.

And here's the finale, ready? Marlowe calls the Casino Owner, tells he'll meet him at the house in 40 minutes (even though he's already there- ha! landlines.). Casino Owner arrives, leaves his henchman outside, so Marlowe gets the drop on him.

And here's the rub: turns out Scary Casino Owner convinced Vivian that her sister killed the missing Right Hand Man, and has been blackmailing her ever since. In the book this is ACTUALLY WHAT HAPPENED, but in the film Marlowe sees that he has no proof, and is just taking advantage of Crazed Sexpot Daughter's frequent blackouts to be a jerk. In both versions, he just fires his gun into the ceiling and scares the Casino Owner out of the door, where he's shot by his own men (who heard the shots and figured out Marlowe was in there, and naturally got jumpy).

He calls the cops to get them out safely, and Bogie and Bacall manage to own this cheesy ending exchange:

Vivian: "You've forgotten one thing - me."
Marlowe: "What's wrong with you?"
Vivian: "Nothing you can't fix."

END SPOILERS


Overall: Should It Be Higher, Lower?

Higher, for sure. It's definitely my favorite in the genre so far (take that, Out Of The Past). They actually made another version of The Big Sleep with Robert Mitchum as Marlowe, but it was in 1978 and he was sixty! Come on, now.

The Legacy:

As popular as it was, no awards or nominations. It is in the NFR, and I did see a "Who was the best Phillip Marlowe?" poll somewhere where Bogart was absoluely crushing everyone else (Elliott Gould? Be serious.).

The Best Video Of It On YouTube:

The Big Sleep was actually finished and shown to servicemen before the studio decided the sexual tension between the two leads needed to be amped up. So they shot the night club scene where they talk for a super long time about horse racing and made countless double entendres (many of which I only got the naughty-side of, knowing squat about horses). Embedding is sadly disabled, so follow this link. The clip is from a colorized version, so brace yourself for that.

BONUS: My favorite part was when they prank call the police!

Leftover Thoughts:

-FYI, by "Fake Book Dealer" I mean a lowlife pornographer that masqerades as a book dealer, not a dealer of false books (or "fake books" like jazz musicians use).

-I kind of want to write my own version of Tom Stoppard's "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead," called Who Killed Owen Taylor? Too bad he never actually appears in The Big Sleep.

-Theorists argue that either Brody killed Owen Taylor and didn't admit it for no real reason, or that Taylor, waking up alone, now a murderer, and without the damning photo of his beloved Carmen, then killed himself- but I don't buy it.

-And now, all quotes all the time:

Carmen: "You're not very tall, are you?"
Marlowe: "Well, I try to be."

after Vivian has trouble opening his office door to get out
Marlowe: "Well it wasn't intentional."
Vivian: "Try it sometime."

Mars: "That any of your business?"
Marlowe: "I could make it my business."
Mars: "I could make your business mine."
Marlowe: "Oh, you wouldn't like it, the pay's too small."

Vivian: "The only trouble is we could've had a lot of fun if you weren't a detective."

Marlowe: "You came in by the keyhole like Peter Pan."
Carmen: "Who's he?"
Marlowe: "Guy I used to know ran a pool room."

Carmen: "Is he as cute as you are?"
Marlowe: "Nobody is." (it's impossible to describe the perfect deadpan with which Bogart delivers this reply. It destroyed me.).



Coming Up...

156. Ben-Hur

155. The Manchurian Candidate

154. Avatar

An unfocused, lazy wrap-up of the show to follow- for in depth coverage, see the entirety of the rest of the internet/entertainment media.

How did I do?

For the third straight year, I got 16 out of 24 categories correct. So.... at least I'm consistent? I missed two out of the three shorts (which is a win, for me), documentary (picked with my heart on the Banksy thing, not my brain), Art Direction and Costumes (Alice in Wonderland? Seriously?), Score, Song, and Cinematography.

I did beat Dave, though! After beating me 18-16 for the last two years, he finished either at 13 (on the posted predictions from Sunday) or 15 due to some off-the-cuff changes to his paper ballot. Either way, boo yah. This puts us even at 2-2 in four years of blog-prognosticating, including my not-super-impressive 13-11 victory during the No Country For Old Men year.

I get to hold on to the bragging rights for a year, or I would if we were the type of dudes that brag about stuff.

How was the telecast?

I don't care. I really don't. I watch to see the Oscars. The actual statues, handed to people, people that made films. I might have off-hand, armchair opinions about stuff, but I will watch the Oscars no matter what. Next Year they could have Justin Bieber host and use a T-Pain app to auto-tune everyone's acceptance speech.

So from my perspective, they were a success. 24 Oscars were presented. Nobody accidentally choked on one of them. I can intellectually appreciate all of the things people are saying about how Franco and Hathaway did, but I just don't care. Since The Oscars are my superbowl, in my mind they are a thing that happens, that I enjoy even when aesthetically they may be pereceived as unpleasant- I don't complain about when the Superbowl is a blowout, similarly.


How do I feel about the awards themselves?

I'm okay with them. Like anyone pulling for The Social Network and Inception, I had steeled myself emotionally for The King's Speech to win nearly everything, but it lost every single tech award it was up for.

Yes, it lost costumes and art direction to Alice in Wonderland, which seems like it was co-directed by Tim Burton and Spencer's gifts, but score went very deservedly to The Social Network, and Cinematography to Inception.

I'm sure David Fincher will have another day in the sun, possibly with his Dragon Tattoo movie. Nolan I'm less sure will ever jibe with the Academy, but a longstanding, Scorsese-like streak of snubbing is just as fun, really.

The King's Speech is better than Slumdog Millionaire and Crash, anyway, so it isn't a burning injustice.

Now it's time for the post-Oscar doldrums. Sigh.

Here we go again! Note to self- stop picking with your heart. You specifically ran a feature on Friday to get all that out of your system. Be cold and logical.

I know I picked a handful already, but some have waffled- this is the master list.


Best Short Film – Live Action

The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

Did not end up seeing the shorts this year, nor purchasing them on itunes. God of Love seems to be the one that stands out from the pack (three of the other four are mega-depressing, The Crush sounds too slight). If I've learned anything, it's that comedies tend to stand out in the crowd in the short films (see The Other Tenants and West Bank Story the last couple of years).

Will Win: God of Love

Best Short Film – Animated

Day and Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

I think the rule is to make up imaginary criteria to judge this one, because there's no pattern to follow and no easy way to win (not even a Pixar short or a Wallace and Gromit installment is safe anymore). So I say The Gruffalo wins because it is A) The Longest (like last year's Peter and The Wolf) and B) Stuffed with more celebrity voices. Done!

Will Win: The Gruffalo

More...

Best Documentary – Short Subjects

Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Comes Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

What's hot right now among these five serious-minded short docs? The Middle East is a big deal, right?

Will Win: Killing in the Name

Best Documentary

Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

I've only seen Restrepo, so I'm uninformed here as well- I'm going with the late game switch from Inside Job to Exit Through The Gift Shop, though. It's getting all the buzz/graffiti these days.

Will Win: Exit Through The Gift Shop

Best Visual Effects
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing

I stand by my pick of Inception for all three of these. Winning only these three is known as "Pulling a Bourne Ultimatum," FYI.

Best Original Song

127 Hours – “If I Rise”
Country Strong – “Coming Home”
Tangled – “I See the Light”
Toy Story 3 – “We Belong Together”

It seems to me that every time there's no Seabiscuit-like frontrunner, then you should stay away from the one that everyone's just kinda settled on. That would be the Randy Newman song from Toy Story 3. And I think it would be just like the Academy to spurn him another time for Alan Mencken, the Oscar Winningest person alive.

Will Win/My Vote: Tangled – “I See The Light”

Best Original Score

127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

It hurts my heart to predict Desplat's score for The King's Speech, which mails in the films climax and sub in Beethoven and is otherwise not memorable (especially for such a gifted composer). This is because beyond 127 Hours' score (which was... loud), the remaining three are nearly tied for my favorite score of the year, and I'd be thrilled to see them win.

Will Win: The King's Speech
My Vote: The Social Network

Best Make Up

Barney’s Vision
The Way Back
The Wolfman

See here.

Will Win: The Wolfman
My Vote: The Way Back

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Continue seeing here.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: True Grit

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and Deathly Hollows: Part One
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Art Direction, my yearly pick to go rogue. I think that The King's Speech has lost a little bit of steam- not much, but enough to lose this category. Logic would dictate that a Tim Burton film would be a likely upset pick, but Alice In Wonderland was apparently terrible. So I say Inception gets a well-deserved fourth win here. This isn't emotional, I swear.

Will Win/My Vote: Inception

Best Editing

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

The only guild award that The Social Network picked up will hold true tonight. Call it a consolation prize.

Will Win/My Vote: The Social Network

Best Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

ROGER F*CKING DEAKINS for the win!

Will Win/My Vote: True Grit

Best Foreign Language Film

Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

Dogtooth is enjoyable effed up, but I imagine (without having seen anything else) that there were better foreign films out there last year. In another abrupt reversal, I'm going with Bier's In A Better World. I have an unresearched theory that second nominations in this category (she had After The Wedding a few years back) give you a leg up.

Will Win: In A Better World

Best Animated Film

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Cars 2? Seriously Pixar?

Will Win: Toy Story 3
My Vote: How to Train Your Dragon

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

This is a bigger lock than some sort of giant padlock or something.

Will Win/My Vote: The Social Network

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

INT. BUCKINGHAM PALACE: The King looks aggrieved.

KING: Er.. Ah... (stammers, is handsome)

HARVEY WEINSTEIN: Ka-Ching!

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Like I said, I don't feel good enough about The King's Speech's momentum to call Carter for the upset here. And even though Melissa Leo has lost a lot a buzz, I can't make a case for anyone else winning. Boring, I know...

Will Win: Melissa Leo – The Fighter
My Vote: Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Bale sealed the deal with a solid speech at the Golden Globes. But I'd have voted for John Hawkes, Ozark badass.

Will Win: Christian Bale – The Fighter
My Vote: John Hawkes- Winter's Bone

Best Actress

Annette Benning – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Natalie Portman picks up an easy win for extending that scene in every movie where she freaks the hell out to feature length. Of the choices available to me, I'd give Lawrence a slight edge over Williams.

Will Win: Natalie Portman – Black Swan
My Vote: Jennifer Lawrence- Winter's Bone

Best Actor

Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours

Colin Firth again, just had to be his Colin Firthiest. Eisenberg had to be unlikeable but compelling, in a very subtle way.

Will Win: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
My Vote: Jesse Eisenberg- The Social Network

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Ethan and Joel Coen – True Grit
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hopper – The King’s Speech
David O. Russell – The Fighter

It's been a long while since I've seen such a major award with such an even split among prognosticators. Hooper and Fincher are in a dead heat, mostly due to Fincher's surprising BAFTA win (after Hooper's even more surprising DGA award). I'm officially siding on the depressingly undeserved choice of Hooper, if only because the DGA is nearly never wrong.

In terms of precedent, this battle feels more like Million Dollar Baby vs. The Aviator (where Eastwood and the character-based movie beat the more technically impressive foe in both) than Traffic vs. Gladiator (where period piece Gladiator nabbed Best Picture despite losing Editing and Director to Traffic).

Will Win: Tom Hooper- The King's Speech
My Vote: David Fincher – The Social Network

Best Picture

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

I will say that there's no The Blind Side this year, and that I enjoyed all ten movies when I saw them. The Kids Are All Right is by far the most over-hyped to me (just as much as The King's Speech, but to a lesser degree). The ten nominee format still amounts to an empty gesture for the bottom nominees, but this year it was noticeably harder to say which five would've composed the small field (Though clearly True Grit had the edge over Inception, in the final analysis).

With time, The King's Speech over The Social Network isn't going to seem as bad as it does right now, or as bad as the other famous disputed Best Pictures. But that doesn't mean there's not a part of my brain screaming at me to make this pick differently (it won editing! it could win Director! Screenplay is in the bag! How could a film win those three and not Best Picture?) Quiet, brain! The King's Speech it is.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Best Picture Ballot…

10. The Kids Are All Right
9. The King's Speech
8. The Fighter
7. 127 Hours
6. Black Swan
5. Toy Story 3
4. Inception
3. True Grit
2. Winter's Bone
1. The Social Network

Dave was much more timely about getting this done than I, so look for mine to post in another few hours, and also shamelessly rip off his Will Win/ My Vote format!- Duncan

Best Short Film – Live Action

The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

I don’t have a horse in this race. I have not seen or heard anything about any of these films. Random guessing to ensue!

Will Win: Wish 143

Best Short Film – Animated

Day and Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

I saw Day and Night because it was in front of Toy Story 3. Otherwise, I have not seen any of these. So…

Will Win/My Vote: Day and Night

More...

Best Documentary – Short Subjects

Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Comes Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

I am drawing nothing on this category either. I hear films whose titles are similar to Rage Against the Machine lyrics have great Academy success.

Will Win: Killing in the Name

Best Documentary

Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Finally, I have some vested interest in a category. I saw Gasland, Restrepo, and Waste Land. However, many prognosticators have Inside Job and Exit through the Gift Shop are the frontrunners. There seems to be something engaging about Exit through the Gift Shop, but I do not feel the Academy will feel the same way.

Will Win: Inside Job
My Vote: Gasland

Best Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part One
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

This category seems pretty straight forward, except for the lack of recognition for The Social Network’s Winkelvii.

Will Win/My Vote: Inception

Best Sound Editing

Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

After years of confusion, I now get the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. I will include it in my book: Academy Awards for Dummies.

Will Win/My Vote: Tron: Legacy

Best Sound Mixing

Inception
The King’s Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

I think this category is the start of The King’s Speech’s run…

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception (with The Social Network a close second)

Best Original Song

127 Hours – “If I Rise”
Country Strong – “Coming Home”
Tangled – “I See the Light”
Toy Story 3 – “We Belong Together”

I feel that I am tempting fate if I go against Toy Story 3. It would be nice to see Dido with an Oscar though.

Will Win: Toy Story 3 – “We Belong Together”
My Vote: 127 Hours – “If I Rise”

Best Original Score

127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

This was a tough category to choose a winner. For me, the two frontrunners are Zimmer’s electronic-based score from Inception, and Ross and Reznor’s whirlwind from The Social Network. Ultimately, Ross and Reznor will take the top prize.

Will Win: The Social Network
My Vote: Inception

Best Make Up

Barney’s Vision
The Way Back
The Wolfman

I saw The Wolfman… On Cinemax… I did not enjoy it.

Will Win/My Vote: The Way Back

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

I am immediately drawn to Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood) and The Tempest (Sandy Powell). However, I feel that The King’s Speech (Jenny Beavan) will take the prize.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Alice in Wonderland

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and Deathly Hollows: Part One
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

All worthy entries, but my choice and what will win are two different choices. The King’s Speech historical re-creation will take the prize. However, my personal choice is for Inception because after watching it on Blu-Ray I saw a lot of little set details that I previously missed.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception

Best Editing

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

It has often been said that the winner of this award will be a predictor of who wins Best Picture. I think it will not hold true this year, as The Social Network picks up the win here.

Will Win/My Vote: The Social Network

Best Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

After nine nominations, it’s Roger F. Deakins’ time.

Will Win/My Vote: True Grit

Best Foreign Language Film

Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

I have not seen any of these. I hear Dogtooth is supposed to be nutty, while Biutiful is supposed to be gritty. I like my films a bit nutty. I cannot throw any weight behind Outside the Law because I would blindly say it stars Steven Seagal.

Will Win: Incendies (because Ebert said so)
My Vote: Dogtooth

Best Animated Film

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

If gambling on the Academy Awards happened with a higher frequency, Toy Story 3’s odds would be 1-20 at this point.

Will Win: Toy Story 3
My Vote: How to Train Your Dragon

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Duh.

Will Win/My Vote: The Social Network

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Even with a weird and controversial (to some) campaign, Leo Will Win this award for a very good performance in a very good movie. I feel that Adams did more with her particular role and I found it more enjoyable.

Will Win: Melissa Leo – The Fighter
My Vote: Amy Adams – The Fighter (with Steinfeld getting a lot of consideration)

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Since Rush won the BAFTA, there is an awful a lot of speculation that he could win the prize over Bale. The lesson to be had is: Talk is cheap. Bale wins the category, as he should. Even though I would like to see Hawkes win and deliver a speech in character from Eastbound and Down.

Will Win/My Vote: Christian Bale – The Fighter

Best Actress

Annette Benning – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

This category, along with Adapted Screenplay, is the easiest pick of the night. Bet the farm.

Will Win/My Vote: Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Best Actor

Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours

I have not even seen The King’s Speech, but how can I go against the awesome Firth?

Will Win/My Vote: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Ethan and Joel Coen – True Grit
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hopper – The King’s Speech
David O. Russell – The Fighter

Personally, this was the toughest voting category for me. I have always admitted and greatly enjoyed the work of Aronofsky, Fincher, and the Coen Brothers. Aronofsky has always presented a fresh approach on matters, while making films that are as moving as they are disturbing. Fincher is the consummate professional who steadies and ship he controls. The Coen Brothers always have their uniquely brilliant spin. David O. Russell did a great job on The Fighter, but there was a lot of talent in front of the camera, so was he merely regulated to a game manager? Tom Hopper, while John Adams was great television, is too new to the arena to get consideration from me. Besides, he suffers from the similar plight that Russell does with all the talent in The King’s Speech being in front of the camera.

Will Win: David Fincher – The Social Network
My Vote: Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan

Best Picture

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

While this year’s field is pretty good, I do feel that The Town should have made the cut over 127 Hours or The Kids Are All Right. I believe Black Swan was the Best Picture of the year, but it has no shot in winning this award. This category is a two horse race between The Social Network and The King’s Speech. Ultimately, The King’s Speech will win the year’s biggest accolade, even though I disagree with that.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Best Picture Ballot…

10. The Kids Are All Right
9. Winter’s Bone
8. The King’s Speech
7. 127 Hours
6. Toy Story 3
5. The Fighter
4. True Grit
3. Inception
2. The Social Network
1. Black Swan

Dave fills out his imaginary Oscar Ballot.

Best Sound Mixing

Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy

I stick to films that I have seen...

Best Sound Editing

Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy

Best Special Effects

Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy

More...

Best Costume Design

Black Swan
Shutter Island
The Fighter
Tron: Legacy
True Grit

Best Art Direction

Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
Tron: Legacy
True Grit

Best Make Up

Black Swan
Piranha 3-d
Shutter Island

How did Black Swan not secure a nomination when the black and white make up on Portman has become part of the film’s identity? Shutter Island gets in mostly for Jackie Earle Haley’s make up, while Piranha’s gore is accurate and over the top.

Best Animated Feature Film

How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3

Best Song

“If I Rise” – Dido and A. R. Rahman – 127 Hours
“Sticks and Stones” – Jonsi – How to Train Your Dragon
“Black Sheep” – Metric – Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

While I did not see 127 Hours, I have heard the song and it is pretty good.

Best Score

Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy

Dear Academy – Change your eligibility rules.

Best Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
A Prophet
The Social Network
True Grit

Black Swan, Inception, The Social Network, and True Grit are obvious choices. I like the difficulty of lighting (or not lighting) the prison, the Rivera work, and the shoot-out at the end of A Prophet enough to merit a nomination.

Best Editing

Black Swan
The Ghost Writer
Inception
The Social Network
The Town

All of these films are tautly edited, even though not all of them are in the “suspense” genre.

Best Original Screenplay

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
Mother
A Prophet

I am always slightly befuddled as to how the true story of someone’s life (see Milk) can be deemed “original.” It just seems a little odd because the writer, unless they knew the person/situation firsthand, would have to adapt it. This is why I am confounded about The Fighter this year.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ghost Writer
How to Train Your Dragon
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit

Solid grouping right here.

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter
Barbara Hershey – Black Swan
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Olivia Williams – The Ghost Writer
Last Actress Out: Winona Ryder – Black Swan

While there were not many memorable lead female performances, there were boatloads of great supporting roles. The Fighter and Black Swan were so stocked; it was absurd amount of talent.

I would have given Winona Ryder a nomination, but her role was not nearly as meaty as the other contenders here.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Fighter
Pierce Brosnan – The Ghost Writer
Vincent Cassel – Black Swan
Matt Damon – True Grit
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Last Actor Out: Dieter Laser – The Human Centipede

Bale’s mesmerizing performance will earn him this year’s award. Brosnan’s Tony Blair-impression was spot-on. Matt Damon was amusing, while Renner was crazy. Vincent Cassel asked the most quintessential question in cinema this year: (Looking for a Link Where Cassel Asks, “Would You Fuck Dis Gurl?”)

As for Laser, yeah, I went there.

Best Actress

Hye-ja Kim – Mother
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Last Actress Out: Elisabeth Shue – Piranha 3-d.

When I first made this list I had three nominees (Kim, Portman, and Steinfeld receiving the Winslet Jump®). Unfortunately, I did not see many memorable lead female performances this year.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Leonardo Di Caprio – Shutter Island
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Tahar Rahim – A Prophet
Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter
Last Actor Out: Ewan McGregor – The Ghost Writer

Eisenberg and Bridges are obvious choices. I feel that had I seen The King’s Speech, Firth would be here as well. Tahar Rahim’s wide-eyed criminal who blurs boundaries is an engaging view. Di Caprio’s performance in Shutter Island stands out more to me than Inception because he has more depth to work with. Lastly, Wahlberg’s subdued performance maybe did not earn him as much attention as it should have, but his silent struggles speak volumes.

Best Director

Ben Affleck – The Town
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David Fincher – The Social Network
Christopher Nolan – Inception
Roman Polanski – The Ghost Writer
Last Director Out: Joon-ho Bong – Mother

You have the new kid on the block (Affleck), the auteur (Aronofsky), the greatest of the hour (Fincher), the visionary (Nolan), and the wily veteran (Polanski). I feel that Affleck got the most out of his cast (after all, Blake Lively appeared to be acting), while Aronofsky was able to push his stars. Fincher, the consummate professional, honed a story to meet up, and ultimately exceed, any and all expectations. Nolan is probably the most original filmmaker we have going right now. Polanski’s thriller already earned him the Berlin Film Festival Award.

Best Picture

Black Swan
The Fighter
The Ghost Writer
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
Mother
A Prophet
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit
Last Movie Out: A Tale of Two Escobars

Before I hear cries of “But Mother and A Prophet are from 2009, not 2010!” … Hold on… Take a big breath… A Prophet did not show up in Milwaukee until the end of January, and Mother came in March. Plus, Mother is actually still getting awards from various critics groups this year, so I am not entirely wacky.

These nominees would probably constitute most (if not all) of my top ten list of the year too. While the Academy acknowledged many of these films in this category, I feel that the omission of The Ghost Writer and The Town bother me, but only slightly.

As for A Tale of Two Escobars, I cannot remember the last time a documentary was so compelling and suspenseful. Sure, it played in one theatre in Los Angeles, and was seen by most on ESPN’s 30 for 30 series. However, it hooks you and enlightens you, which is what you demand from a documentary.

Nomination Totals:
Black Swan – 15 nominations
Inception – 10 nominations
The Social Network – 9 nominations
True Grit – 8 nominations
The Fighter – 7 nominations
How to Train Your Dragon – 7 nominations
The Ghost Writer – 6 nominations
Tron: Legacy – 6 nominations
The Town – 5 nominations
A Prophet – 4 nominations
Shutter Island – 4 nominations
Mother – 3 nominations
Toy Story 3 – 2 nominations
Blue Valentine – 1 nomination
Piranha 3-d: 1 nomination
Tangled – 1 nomination
Winter's Bone – 1 nomination
Hereafter- 1 nomination
Iron Man 2- 1 nomination
127 Hours- 1 nomination
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World- 1 nomination

What happened to Oscar Week? I warned you my enthusiasm was low this year. We'll get to the rest of the predictions over the weekend. For now, enjoy my favorite part of Oscar coverage, Preferred Oscar balloting- the things I would vote for if I had a vote. Posting later tonight, Dave's ballot!

Best Animated Feature:

The Illusionist
Tangled
How To Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3

Just now saw The Illusionist, a sleepy but beautiful film that has one of the most bittersweet endings for any animated film, ever. Tangled I might have enjoyed because it relied on the slapstick energy of early Disney cartoons more than the familiar Alan Mencken songs, but it was thoroughly entertaining either way.

Toy Story 3 managed to be moving, beautiful, and memorable despite not needing to exist in the first place, so I don't begrudge it winning this category. But I've got a huge soft spot for How To Train Your Dragon, which shouldn't have worked for so many reasons, but did. It's from Dreamworks Animation, known primarily for the unsubtle, diminishing returns of the Shrek series. It has historically innacurrate Vikings with inconsistent accents. But a good story, well-told, an adorable dragon, and the first 3D effects to actually sell me on the medium made me want to see it again the very next day (and later on that week).

More...

Best Art Direction:

The Ghost Writer
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
I Am Love
Inception
Tron: Legacy

Had a lot of trouble narrowing this one down, but I ended up with five of the most visually striking or memorable films. TRON may have been mostly digital, but if Avatar can win this category I don't feel bad about including it- I'm going to the gym mostly so I can pull of a light-suit when they become available. Scott Pilgrim matched everything to Bryan Lee O'Malley's graphic novel, down to some crazy minute details.

The Ghost Writer practically made another character out of an austere, modernist beach retreat location. Inception took a similar cue for its dreamworld, with just a dash of Escher. I Am Love, meanwhile, was as pristine as a Criterion Collection cover.

Best Cinematography:

Wally Pfister, Inception
Russell Boyd, The Way Back
Martin Ruhe, The American
Jeff Cronenweth, The Social Network
Roger F*CKING Deakins, True Grit

Nearly gave Deakins a second nomination for consulting on the look of How To Train Your Dragon, but his work in True Grit is of course beautiful, especially during a sequence at the end. I like Wally Pfister's clean, stately work every time he works with Nolan, but I get the feeling he's destined to be the Randy Newman of this category over the years- always there, never winning. Cronenweth's did fun things with windows and glass doors in The Social Network, plus he had to work digital and make it look like film, and put up with David Fincher.

In non-actual-nominee territory, epic natural vistas in The Way Back and Criterion-level austerity in The American were the most memorable films for me, visually.

Best Costume Design:

Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Tron: Legacy
I Am Love
True Grit
Shutter Island

I know, Scott Pilgrim mostly just matched t-shirts to the graphic novel. But also there were crazy stage outfits, and stuff... Kudos to the academy for recognizing the chic character on display in I Am Love, but shame on them for ignoring the classic 50s duds in Shutter Island. Let that be a lesson, Marty- February is not your month.

Best Makeup:

The Way Back
Black Swan
Tron: Legacy

Can't say I ever notice makeup work that much, so I'm glad this is a three-movie kind of deal. TRON had a bunch of people with white faces, right? Hats off to the makeup at the end of Black Swan which does most of the "bad girl" phase of Portman's role for her. But hands down the most impressive work to me was the blistering heatstroke in The Way Back, which had part of me fearing that Saoirse Ronan was actually about to die of thirst.

Best Original Score:

John Powell, How To Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Carter Burwell, True Grit
Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Daft Punk, Tron: Legacy

I've totally become a film score nerd over the last couple of years- I blame mostly Dave. So that makes this category hard to narrow down: near misses include Desplat's The Ghost Writer and Harry Potter 7.1, Nigel Godrich's bleep-blooping Scott Pilgrim score, Rachel Portman's Never Let Me Go, and James "LCD Soundsystem" Murphy's Greenberg.

But the best of the best include three actual nominees in Powell, Zimmer, and Reznor/Ross, whose work ran the gamut from traditional orchestral bombast (Dragon) to avant garde noise making (Network) to a potent mixture of the two (Inception).

I really enjoyed Carter Burwell's score for True Grit as well, with a small selection of traditional hymns broken apart and repeated as character themes over and over. Too bad the Academy doesn't like borrowing Public Domain material, disqualifying it just like There Will Be Blood a few years back. Finally, I don't think there was any Oscar snub that was easier to predict than Daft Punk, but the awesomeness of that score makes it still hard to take.

Best Original Song:

"Sticks and Stones," Jonsi, How To Train Your Dragon
"We Are Sex Bob-Omb," Beck, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
"Garbage Truck," Beck, SPVTW
"Threshold," Beck, SPVTW
"Black Sheep," Metric, SPVTW

Beyond the wonderful (albeit hard to decipher) song at the end of Dragon from Sigur Ros' frontman, the only songs I can even think of are all from Scott Pilgrim. But I feel pretty confident that I'd like them more than the rest, anyway.

Best Sound Editing/Sound Mixing/Visual Effects:

Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Tron: Legacy
The Social Network
How To Train Your Dragon

I just realized I nominated the same five films for all three of these categories, so this saves space. Four of them are filled with enough action and innovative imagery to justify inclusion (as for Dragon in VFX, insert joke about Avatar here), and I might be biased in favor of The Social Network because I watched all of the special features. But the Winklevoss effect was better than anything in Hereafter, come on. My mom thought they were real twins!

Best Film Editing:

Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
The Social Network
True Grit
Please Give

Inception and Scott Pilgrim earn a place on technical mastery- The Social Network team also had to navigate through hundreds of different takes, which must have been fun. But that movie was expertly paced as well, taking essentially a courtroom drama and making it a propusively narrative with an intricate structure.

True Grit is more of a study in langorous pauses, and catching your breath after instense showdowns. And the way-better-than-The-Kids-Are-All-Right Please Give is a perfect 90 minute film, intellectual comedy done right.

Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay:

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Coen bros, True Grit
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone
Edgar Wright, Michael Bacall, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
4 people, How To Train Your Dragon

Dragon was mostly written by directors Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois, though the concept and structure existed before they were brought in. But it's a great, heartfelt script that survived the Dreamworks studio's normal "How many McDonald's toys can we get out of this?" mentality.

Wright and Bacall wisely decided to stick with Bryan Lee O'Malley's original words for nearly all of Scott Pilgrim, which worked out nicely when only fans of the graphic novels went to see it, anyway. The three Oscar nominees are pretty obvious choices.

Best Writing - Original Screenplay:

Nicole Holocefner, Please Give
Dan Fogelman, Tangled
Joon-ho Bong, Eun-kyo Park, Mother
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Brian Koppelman, Solitary Man

Before you ask, Disney themselves were pushing Tangled for original, and I'm gonna roll with it since this category had far less that appealed to me than adapted. Besides, do we have the credit the Grimm brothers with every story that has a girl with super-long hair trapped in a tower? Rapunzel itself was adapted anyway. The script itself is clever, fast, and winning.

In one of those Capote/Infamous parralells, there were two films this year that self-referentially commented on Michael Douglas and the characters he usually plays. I didn't see Wall Street 2, but I hear it was a giant mess- Solitary Man I found to be a smart, biting look at the used car salesman persona aura Douglas carries, even if I wasn't over the moon about his performance in it.

Inception in inconceivably going to lose to The King's Speech in this category on Sunday, because apparently juggling five different levels of reality at once is less impressive than "there was a handsome king who had a problem and then it got slightly better." Boo.

Mother was an interesting, involving modern noir, that manages to get you so invested that you don't think about any obvious twists that might be right around the corner.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
George Clooney, The American
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Okay fine, Colin Firth is pretty great in The King's Speech. That's one out of 12 that makes sense to me. I'm usually not that into DiCaprio's usual stick, which boils down to "THIS IS SERIOUS. LOOK HOW SERIOUS MY FACE IS RIGHT NOW," but it worked in the very dramatic Shutter Island (and made Inception a little less fun than it could've been).

Eisenberg is a revelation in a very non-traditonal leading role, and Mark Wahlberg has been unjustly forgotten as the straight man to Bale and Leo's scenery chewing. And I wish I had seen the artful The American in theaters, for the cinematography yes, but also Clooney's angsty, more vulnerable than normal work.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Matt Damon, True Grit
Andrew Garfield, Never Let Me Go
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Ed Harris, The Way Back
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

That's right, two for upcoming Spider-Man Garfield, for being quiet at the right moments in Network and one profound howl of rage near the end of Never Let Me Go. Harris and Hawkes play badasses just getting by in harsh conditions of various kinds, and Matt Damon is the MVP of True Grit for me since he has to keep a delicate balance between buffoonish antagonist and hero.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Catherine Keener, Please Give
Rebecca Hall, Please Give
Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Hallee Steinfeld, True Grit

Lawrence and Steinfeld have been everywhere this awards season- it's all richly deserved. I don't know how many people saw I Am Love, exactly, but it clearly wasn't enough- can anyone tell me if Swinton's Italian is as good as her performance, though?

And can you tell I really loved Please Give? What does Catherine Keener have to do to get an Oscar people? Be in something other than a comedy? Rebecca Hall, my Frost/Nixon era marriage proposal still stands. Think about it.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer
Amanda Peet, Please Give
Ellen Wong, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Blake Lively, The Town
Keira Knightley, Never Let Me Go

I'm not sure if Blake Lively was that good in The Town or if she just wowwed me nby being so much more dynamic than in her affectless "Gossip Girl" role- but either way, impressive (though she's clearly mailing it in during The Green Lantern trailer).

Peet is aces in Please Give, a caustic, brutally honest character that defys any artificially loud performance tropes. Knightley makes a late run in Never Let Me Go for sympathy after playing a self-involved poser for the entire film that nearly works. Wong is a bundle of energy that stands out in an already hyper film, and Williams makes The Ghost Writer warrant an immediately re-watch to see just how quietly masterful she was.

Best Director:

David Fincher, The Social Network
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Edgar Wright, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik, Winter's Bone

I think these are all pretty clear cut, from the nominations above. Winter's Bone impressed me in mood and atmosphere, breaking a tie with Holocefner and Please Give for the last spot.

Best Picture:

The Ghost Writer
How To Train Your Dragon
Inception
Please Give
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
The Social Network
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
The Way Back
Winter's Bone

Sorry, The Town. Too bad, Shutter Island. If only you had laser-disc battles too, Never Let Me Go. Seriously, it was tough to get down to ten, despite everyone else on the internet claiming this was a week year. They can't all be 2007, folks, don't get greedy.

In a vaccuum, would I have been nicer to The King's Speech? Ehh, maybe. If I wasn't an Oscar fanatic, I probably wouldn't have bothered with it in the first place. I also just sort of enjoyed The Fighter and Black Swan, which ended up with one nomination apiece. I've got a big treatise on Best Picture in the works to explain all this.

Totals-

Scott Pilgrim- 14 (in 11 categories)
The Social Network- 11
Inception- 10
True Grit- 9
How To Train Your Dragon- 8
TRON: Legacy- 8
Please Give- 6 (in 5 categories)
Winter's Bone- 5
The Way Back- 4
Ghost Writer- 3
I Am Love- 3
Never Let Me Go- 2
Shutter Island- 2
Tangled- 2
The American- 2
Black Swan- 1
The Fighter- 1
Toy Story 3- 1
The Town- 1
The King's Speech- 1
The Town- 1
Solitary Man- 1
Mother- 1
The Illusionist- 1

Today, we'll look at some of the artier tech awards, and of course we'll also form some definite opinions that will turn out to be way off!

Best Makeup

Barney's Version- Adrien Morot (0/0)
The Way Back- Edouard F. Henriques (0/2), Greg Funk (0/0), Yolanda Toussieng (2/3)
The Wolfman- Rick Baker(6/11), Dave Elsey (0/1)

Research for this category revealed a fun fact: there is an Oscar-winning makeup artist (Braveheart) named 'Peter Frampton'! I think that must have an effect on that guy's life that is the exact opposite of the fictional 'Michael Bolton' in Office Space.

Anyhow- we meet again, Rick Baker. Will your flashy, more-is-more approach to hair and claws beat out two films that no one has seen? Of course it will.

Though the blistering heat-stroke of The Way Back (which I saw) and aging effects in Barney's Version (which I didn't) may be fine enough, Baker is this category's only superstar- and he took the inaugural win in it for An American Werewolf in London, besides.

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland- Robert Stromberg (1/2), Karen O'Hara (0/1)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1- Stuart Craig (3/8), Stephenie McMillan (1/3)
Inception Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Douglas A. Mowat (all 0/0)
The King's Speech- Eve Stewart (0/1), Judy Farr (0/0)
True Grit- Jess Gonchor (0/0), Nancy Haigh (1/5)

It would seem that the heavyweights in this category are the Harry Potter team, but Oscar logic dictates that they will have to wait for the last film in the series to add another win (so mark that in for next year).

Look for The King's Speech to pick this up on its way to a near-sweep. True Grit feels like the only possible spoiler to me, if voters are feeling nostalgic for America instead of Britain.

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland- Colleen Atwood (2/8)
I Am Love- Antonella Cannarozzi (0/0)
The King's Speech- Jenny Beavan (1/8)
The Tempest- Sandy Powell (3/8)
True Grit- Mary Zophres (0/0)

Three heavyweights in this category, but do we even need to think about it? If there's a category that loves British royalty movies even more than the Academy at large, it's this one, so put another in The King's Speech column. True Grit seems like the potential spoiler here as well, mostly because recent winners Atwood and Powell both worked on critically frowned-upon films.

Best Animated Feature

How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Included here with little fanfare because there's nothing left to say about Pixar and its dominance. Hopefully the upcoming Cars 2 will be terrible and we can all take glee in how they've sold out.

Coming up later today: Score and Song, which I always have a lot to say about.

Oscar prognosticating is the bread and butter here at Kinematoscope, but the late-game reversal of fortune in the race has sapped my enthusiasm for it this year.

So instead of the month-long Oscarthon, we'll have an abbreviated Oscar week, with some longer posts leading up to the ceremony. Today, some technical awards!



Best Sound Editing

Inception- Richard King (2/3)
Toy Story 3- Tom Myers (0/2), Michael Silvers (1/5)
TRON: Legacy- Gwendolyn Yates Whittle (0/1), Addison Teague (0/0)
True Grit- Skip Lievsay (0/3), Craig Berkey (0/2)
Unstoppable- Mark Stoeckinger (0/2)

Since it bears repeating every year, this category pertains to the creation of sound effects, mostly. So it's the guys making footsteps on foley stages and recording elephants to stand in for aliens, and so on. The consensus seems to be that any time there's an actiony blockbuster with critical respect, it takes it- last year The Hurt Locker broke this rule, but since Inception fits the bill and is still a huge underdog for other awards, it seems like an easy walk for their soundpeople this year.

I can't argue- they did have to decide what Paris folding in on itself would sound like, after all. Repeat viewings make the scene where everything explodes for no reason seem like shameless Tech-baiting, as well.



Best Sound Mixing

Inception- Lora Hirschberg (0/1), Gary Rizzo (0/2), Ed Novick (0/2)
The King's Speech- Paul Hamblin (0/0), Martin Jensen (0/0), John Midgley (0/1)
Salt- Jeffrey J. Haboush (0/1), William Sarokin (0/0), Scott Millan (4/7), Greg P. Russell (0/13)
The Social Network- Ren Klyce (0/2), David Parker (2/5), Michael Semanick (2/7), Mark Weingarten (0/1)
True Grit- Skip Lievsay (0/3), Craig Berkey (0/2), Greg Orloff (1/2), Peter Kurland (0/2)

The Susan Lucci of the season is Salt's Greg P. Russell, now on his fourteenth nomination without a trophy to show for it- he was partners for a long time with current record holder Kevin O'Connell (0/20). But no one's giving Salt an Oscar, get real- it's one of the few nominees for anything that I haven't seen, because it sounds ridiculous (if competently made).

Inception looks primed to win here as well- bear in mind I've gotten both of the sound categories wrong for three straight years, though. Mixing, in particular, seems harder to predict, because the two front runners for Best Picture have elbowed their way into the field. I can think of no compelling argument for The King's Speech, sonically, but The Social Network has the much heralded scene in which Eisenberg and Timberlake have to shout a long, complex conversation over the din of a nightclub (see above). That could draw some votes.



Best Visual Effects

Alice In Wonderland- Ken Ralston (4/6), David Schaub (0/0), Carey Villegas (0/0), Sean Phillips (0/0)
Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows: Pt 1- Tim Burke (1/2), John Richardson (1/4), Christian Manz (0/0), Nicolas Aithadi (0/0)
Hereafter- Michael Owens (0/0), Bryan Grill (0/0), Stephan Trojansky (0/0), Joe Farrell (0/0)
Inception- Chris Corbould (0/1), Andrew Lockley (0/0), Pete Bebb (0/0), Paul J. Franklin (0/1)
Iron Man 2- Janek Sirrs (1/1), Ben Snow (0/3), Ged Wright (0/0), Daniel Sudick (0/3)

I'm not sure if the expansion to five nominees will make this category easier or harder to predict. In any case, recent history has provided us with one slam-dunk nominee to choose every year, except for the year they reminded us that quantity does not equal quality by dismissing Transformers. This year the showiest, largest effects picture is also the lone BP nominee, so Inception will take this one easily- my favorite part is that the most memorable effect, in this age of CGI trickery, was the old-school spinning hallway fight, achieved by simply rotating the entire set.

So mark this one down in pen, not pencil. Inception is on pace for a sweep! Also, I highly recommend the VFX featurette embedded above for the criminally-snubbed TRON: Legacy, because not only is it neat, but it eschews the usual talking heads and the "Let's Explain What The Film's About, Even Though Anyone Who Cares Enough To Watch This Already Knows" nonsense common to featurettes.

Best Documentary Feature

Exit Through the Gift Shop
GasLand
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Best Foreign Film

Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

These will be the only two categories in which I haven't seen all or most of the nominees, because I just don't watch enough documentaries and the foreign films take forever to get here. As notable as Banksy's street-art campaign in LA for Gift Shop has been, I'm betting on the timelier and indisputably not staged Inside Job to take it. Maybe the director will also wear a gorilla mask, just 'cause?

And Foreign? Who knows? In years of going on the record, I've only gotten this category right once, and that was on an easy, Holocaust-based call (The Counterfeiters). I feel pretty confident that the only one I have seen, Dogtooth, is too crazy to win, and also that Biutiful will lose simply for being the recognizable one that we all expect. Susanne Bier's In a Better World will also be a popular choice, given her name recognition, so nay on that. I'm going with Outside The Law- it's a period piece, which breaks the tie with Incendies.

Thus concludes part one. Stay tuned for more predictions. I promise not to pick with my heart this year.

A while ago I tried to read Robert Ludlum classic The Bourne Identity, but compared to the film of the same name I found it dryer than dry. I needed a glass of water after three pages.

Instead, let's talk about the second followup to the film adaptation, 2008's The Bourne Ultimatum.

The Key Players:

Director Paul Greengrass took some time out from dramatizing important historical events like the Bogside Masssacre (Bloody Sunday) and 9/11 (United 93) to make the second and third Bourne movies, taking over from Doug Liman.

Oscar-winning screenwriter Matt Damon makes his second appearance on the countdown, limiting himself to acting this time.

Triple oscar nominee Joan Allen (Nixon, The Crucible, The Contender) and teen Shakespearian Julia Stiles (10 Things I Hate About You, O, the Ethan Hawke Hamlet that wasn't as bad as you think) both return from Supremacy to show us the CIA has a conscience.

Meanwhile, character actor David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck, also he was totally Kim Basinger's pimp in L.A. Confidential you guys) and familiar southern gentleman Albert Finney play the ruthless CIA bad guys.



Click for More...

The Story:

One suspects a "PREVIOUSLY, ON THE BOURNE SAGA" style highlight reel might be necessary, but it isn't. We start en media res as Bourne (Damon) runs from Russian police (I believe right after finally killing the dude that killed Marie in Supremacy). Even though he's limping, he ducks most of them, and gets the drop on two that follow him into a janitor's closet. "Don't kill me." One of them pleads.

"My argument is not with you," Bourne responds- he's begun to have flashbacks to his initial indoctrination into the supersoldier program (just in time for a third film!).

Sometime later he goes to London to track down a journalist for The Guardian that's mentioned 'Jason Bourne' in an article or two. Of course this journalist has also caught the attention of the CIA (chiefly David Strathairn's ruthless Deputy Director Noah Vosen). Despite Jason Bourne, smartest man in the world, and his clever dodging tactics, the journo ends up dead at the hands of a CIA sniper- though Bourne takes his notes before getting away.

Bourne tracks the CIA leak that was speaking to the dead guy to Madrid (Vosen and co. right behind him), and makes an unlikely ally in Nicky Parsons (Stiles). They follow the leak to Tangiers, Morrocco, and a crazy chase ensues to stop another CIA "asset" from killing the guy.

But then he blows up. Sensing a pattern here? After being forced to yet again kill another supersoldier just like himself in order to survive, Bourne sends Nicky on the run and takes the fight home to America.

The Artistry:

I was interested to turn a critical eye on the third Bourne movie- even though it's by far the most critically revered of the series, it's still a pretty straightforward action movie. What did it do any better than the first two?

The first half of Ultimatum in particular, in which Big Bad CIA dude Strathairn has the upper hand and Bourne spends a lot of time and energy trying to talk to two dudes who promptly get killed, might be a labor to watch.

But the first big sequence, involving a sniper, security cameras, and a cleverly placed pre-paid cellphone, is still riveting cinema- excellently staged and paced, plus the cellphone bit is just clever (and if I had a lot of money to waste on phones I would do it to strangers all the time). The chase through Madrid, however, is kind of a bore, since it consists mainly of people staring at maps on computer screens and a bafflingly naieve guy that we know is about ot explode.

But it doesn't take that long, and the Bourne brand has always been about delaying answers with well-made action setpieces. Plus, instead of regrouping after Bourne is foiled again, Ultimatum moves headlong into a stunning pursuit of the Evil Agent guy through the streets to keep him from killing Nicki.

His eventual takedown of the rival assassin, Desh, is punctuated by my favorite close-quarters weapon of the series (a book!) and that famous shot where the camera follows Bourne as he jumps from a rooftop, through a window across the alley.

The Bourne Ultimatum reaches real heights with that sequence, taking the raw energy and realism of the prior films and ratcheting everying up a few notches. The entire film contains several intentional homages to the previous two (I didn't realize we were so sentimental about them)- wikipedia has the full list.

You almost don't ever need to see those two again- but just almost. Supremacy of course began with the shocking death of Bourne's girlfriend Marie, and Greengrass and Gilroy make the wise choice to have that death still reverberate strongly- Damon plays the pain and remorse well, and it's a welcome additional motivation for the character, since 'who am I?' is getting a little old at this point.

Joan Allen throws a welcome wrench in the formula as well, since Bourne finally has an ally on the inside. This leads to a brilliant endgame...

THE ENDING! SPOILERS!

In a brilliant retconning of the closing scene of Supremacy, Bourne calls the only CIA stooge with a conscience, Pam Landy (Allen), who covertly passes him the address of the supersecret training facility. He tells her to meet him in the park, then strolls into Vosen's office while the entire teams goes there to intercept him.

He finally gets to the final showdown with Finney, the brains of the whole operation, who reveals the somewhat-shocking truth: Bourne volunteered for the program by shooting an anonymous man in the head, just because they told him to.

Although it's clear that he does so after a fair amount of psyche-breaking-down type conditioning, it's just as clear that he does it willingly. The lesson here, just like in Total Recall, is that sometimes wiping your memory can make you a better person.

Bourne decides not to kill Finney, and escapes to the roof. There he is confronted by another CIA assassin that he spared earlier, who spares him in turn. Vosen gets a cheap shot in as Bourne jumps into the East River. I bet you can guess if he dies or not.

Also Landy faxes some documents somewhere and the bad dudes go on trial for being jerks, or something. Hooray!

END SPOILERS


Overall: Should It Be Higher, Lower?

Slightly higher. It serves nicely as a summation of the whole series which saves us all a lot of time in the long run.

The Legacy:

Well it won three Oscars, and I guess there's going to be a Jason Bourne-less fourth movie (directed by Tony Gilroy). So that's something.

The Bourne series on the whole had an effect on the overall grittiness of the action genre in the last decade, exemplified best by James Bond's transformation from a cufflink-adjusting eyebrow raiser (Die Another Day) to a badass that strangled people to death in men's restrooms (Casino Royale).

The Best Video Of It On YouTube:

Because it's fun, a side by side of the recreated scene from Supremacy.



Leftover Thoughts:

-Also it's strongly implied that Nicki knew Bourne (nee Jason Webb) intimately before he became a super soldier and lost his memory, but it's quickly moved past and never revisted, which I liked.

-Julia Stiles' wordless reaction after Bourne kills Desh is some great acting. It boggles me that she's spent so much of her career choosing terrible scripts.

-Rumor has it that Tom Stoppard did an uncredited polish on the script, further proof that he is awesome.


Coming Up...

157. The Big Sleep

156. Ben-Hur

155. The Manchurian Candidate