Kinematoscope

Dave was much more timely about getting this done than I, so look for mine to post in another few hours, and also shamelessly rip off his Will Win/ My Vote format!- Duncan

Best Short Film – Live Action

The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143

I don’t have a horse in this race. I have not seen or heard anything about any of these films. Random guessing to ensue!

Will Win: Wish 143

Best Short Film – Animated

Day and Night
The Gruffalo
Let’s Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, a Journey Diary

I saw Day and Night because it was in front of Toy Story 3. Otherwise, I have not seen any of these. So…

Will Win/My Vote: Day and Night

More...

Best Documentary – Short Subjects

Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Comes Up
The Warriors of Qiugang

I am drawing nothing on this category either. I hear films whose titles are similar to Rage Against the Machine lyrics have great Academy success.

Will Win: Killing in the Name

Best Documentary

Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land

Finally, I have some vested interest in a category. I saw Gasland, Restrepo, and Waste Land. However, many prognosticators have Inside Job and Exit through the Gift Shop are the frontrunners. There seems to be something engaging about Exit through the Gift Shop, but I do not feel the Academy will feel the same way.

Will Win: Inside Job
My Vote: Gasland

Best Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part One
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

This category seems pretty straight forward, except for the lack of recognition for The Social Network’s Winkelvii.

Will Win/My Vote: Inception

Best Sound Editing

Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

After years of confusion, I now get the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. I will include it in my book: Academy Awards for Dummies.

Will Win/My Vote: Tron: Legacy

Best Sound Mixing

Inception
The King’s Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

I think this category is the start of The King’s Speech’s run…

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception (with The Social Network a close second)

Best Original Song

127 Hours – “If I Rise”
Country Strong – “Coming Home”
Tangled – “I See the Light”
Toy Story 3 – “We Belong Together”

I feel that I am tempting fate if I go against Toy Story 3. It would be nice to see Dido with an Oscar though.

Will Win: Toy Story 3 – “We Belong Together”
My Vote: 127 Hours – “If I Rise”

Best Original Score

127 Hours
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

This was a tough category to choose a winner. For me, the two frontrunners are Zimmer’s electronic-based score from Inception, and Ross and Reznor’s whirlwind from The Social Network. Ultimately, Ross and Reznor will take the top prize.

Will Win: The Social Network
My Vote: Inception

Best Make Up

Barney’s Vision
The Way Back
The Wolfman

I saw The Wolfman… On Cinemax… I did not enjoy it.

Will Win/My Vote: The Way Back

Best Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

I am immediately drawn to Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood) and The Tempest (Sandy Powell). However, I feel that The King’s Speech (Jenny Beavan) will take the prize.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Alice in Wonderland

Best Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and Deathly Hollows: Part One
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

All worthy entries, but my choice and what will win are two different choices. The King’s Speech historical re-creation will take the prize. However, my personal choice is for Inception because after watching it on Blu-Ray I saw a lot of little set details that I previously missed.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception

Best Editing

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

It has often been said that the winner of this award will be a predictor of who wins Best Picture. I think it will not hold true this year, as The Social Network picks up the win here.

Will Win/My Vote: The Social Network

Best Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

After nine nominations, it’s Roger F. Deakins’ time.

Will Win/My Vote: True Grit

Best Foreign Language Film

Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

I have not seen any of these. I hear Dogtooth is supposed to be nutty, while Biutiful is supposed to be gritty. I like my films a bit nutty. I cannot throw any weight behind Outside the Law because I would blindly say it stars Steven Seagal.

Will Win: Incendies (because Ebert said so)
My Vote: Dogtooth

Best Animated Film

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

If gambling on the Academy Awards happened with a higher frequency, Toy Story 3’s odds would be 1-20 at this point.

Will Win: Toy Story 3
My Vote: How to Train Your Dragon

Best Adapted Screenplay

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Duh.

Will Win/My Vote: The Social Network

Best Original Screenplay

Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Vote: Inception

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Even with a weird and controversial (to some) campaign, Leo Will Win this award for a very good performance in a very good movie. I feel that Adams did more with her particular role and I found it more enjoyable.

Will Win: Melissa Leo – The Fighter
My Vote: Amy Adams – The Fighter (with Steinfeld getting a lot of consideration)

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Since Rush won the BAFTA, there is an awful a lot of speculation that he could win the prize over Bale. The lesson to be had is: Talk is cheap. Bale wins the category, as he should. Even though I would like to see Hawkes win and deliver a speech in character from Eastbound and Down.

Will Win/My Vote: Christian Bale – The Fighter

Best Actress

Annette Benning – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

This category, along with Adapted Screenplay, is the easiest pick of the night. Bet the farm.

Will Win/My Vote: Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Best Actor

Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours

I have not even seen The King’s Speech, but how can I go against the awesome Firth?

Will Win/My Vote: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

Best Director

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Ethan and Joel Coen – True Grit
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hopper – The King’s Speech
David O. Russell – The Fighter

Personally, this was the toughest voting category for me. I have always admitted and greatly enjoyed the work of Aronofsky, Fincher, and the Coen Brothers. Aronofsky has always presented a fresh approach on matters, while making films that are as moving as they are disturbing. Fincher is the consummate professional who steadies and ship he controls. The Coen Brothers always have their uniquely brilliant spin. David O. Russell did a great job on The Fighter, but there was a lot of talent in front of the camera, so was he merely regulated to a game manager? Tom Hopper, while John Adams was great television, is too new to the arena to get consideration from me. Besides, he suffers from the similar plight that Russell does with all the talent in The King’s Speech being in front of the camera.

Will Win: David Fincher – The Social Network
My Vote: Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan

Best Picture

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

While this year’s field is pretty good, I do feel that The Town should have made the cut over 127 Hours or The Kids Are All Right. I believe Black Swan was the Best Picture of the year, but it has no shot in winning this award. This category is a two horse race between The Social Network and The King’s Speech. Ultimately, The King’s Speech will win the year’s biggest accolade, even though I disagree with that.

Will Win: The King’s Speech
My Best Picture Ballot…

10. The Kids Are All Right
9. Winter’s Bone
8. The King’s Speech
7. 127 Hours
6. Toy Story 3
5. The Fighter
4. True Grit
3. Inception
2. The Social Network
1. Black Swan

Dave fills out his imaginary Oscar Ballot.

Best Sound Mixing

Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy

I stick to films that I have seen...

Best Sound Editing

Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy

Best Special Effects

Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy

More...

Best Costume Design

Black Swan
Shutter Island
The Fighter
Tron: Legacy
True Grit

Best Art Direction

Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
Tron: Legacy
True Grit

Best Make Up

Black Swan
Piranha 3-d
Shutter Island

How did Black Swan not secure a nomination when the black and white make up on Portman has become part of the film’s identity? Shutter Island gets in mostly for Jackie Earle Haley’s make up, while Piranha’s gore is accurate and over the top.

Best Animated Feature Film

How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3

Best Song

“If I Rise” – Dido and A. R. Rahman – 127 Hours
“Sticks and Stones” – Jonsi – How to Train Your Dragon
“Black Sheep” – Metric – Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

While I did not see 127 Hours, I have heard the song and it is pretty good.

Best Score

Black Swan
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy

Dear Academy – Change your eligibility rules.

Best Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
A Prophet
The Social Network
True Grit

Black Swan, Inception, The Social Network, and True Grit are obvious choices. I like the difficulty of lighting (or not lighting) the prison, the Rivera work, and the shoot-out at the end of A Prophet enough to merit a nomination.

Best Editing

Black Swan
The Ghost Writer
Inception
The Social Network
The Town

All of these films are tautly edited, even though not all of them are in the “suspense” genre.

Best Original Screenplay

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
Mother
A Prophet

I am always slightly befuddled as to how the true story of someone’s life (see Milk) can be deemed “original.” It just seems a little odd because the writer, unless they knew the person/situation firsthand, would have to adapt it. This is why I am confounded about The Fighter this year.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ghost Writer
How to Train Your Dragon
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit

Solid grouping right here.

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – The Fighter
Barbara Hershey – Black Swan
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Olivia Williams – The Ghost Writer
Last Actress Out: Winona Ryder – Black Swan

While there were not many memorable lead female performances, there were boatloads of great supporting roles. The Fighter and Black Swan were so stocked; it was absurd amount of talent.

I would have given Winona Ryder a nomination, but her role was not nearly as meaty as the other contenders here.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale – The Fighter
Pierce Brosnan – The Ghost Writer
Vincent Cassel – Black Swan
Matt Damon – True Grit
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Last Actor Out: Dieter Laser – The Human Centipede

Bale’s mesmerizing performance will earn him this year’s award. Brosnan’s Tony Blair-impression was spot-on. Matt Damon was amusing, while Renner was crazy. Vincent Cassel asked the most quintessential question in cinema this year: (Looking for a Link Where Cassel Asks, “Would You Fuck Dis Gurl?”)

As for Laser, yeah, I went there.

Best Actress

Hye-ja Kim – Mother
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Last Actress Out: Elisabeth Shue – Piranha 3-d.

When I first made this list I had three nominees (Kim, Portman, and Steinfeld receiving the Winslet Jump®). Unfortunately, I did not see many memorable lead female performances this year.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Leonardo Di Caprio – Shutter Island
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Tahar Rahim – A Prophet
Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter
Last Actor Out: Ewan McGregor – The Ghost Writer

Eisenberg and Bridges are obvious choices. I feel that had I seen The King’s Speech, Firth would be here as well. Tahar Rahim’s wide-eyed criminal who blurs boundaries is an engaging view. Di Caprio’s performance in Shutter Island stands out more to me than Inception because he has more depth to work with. Lastly, Wahlberg’s subdued performance maybe did not earn him as much attention as it should have, but his silent struggles speak volumes.

Best Director

Ben Affleck – The Town
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David Fincher – The Social Network
Christopher Nolan – Inception
Roman Polanski – The Ghost Writer
Last Director Out: Joon-ho Bong – Mother

You have the new kid on the block (Affleck), the auteur (Aronofsky), the greatest of the hour (Fincher), the visionary (Nolan), and the wily veteran (Polanski). I feel that Affleck got the most out of his cast (after all, Blake Lively appeared to be acting), while Aronofsky was able to push his stars. Fincher, the consummate professional, honed a story to meet up, and ultimately exceed, any and all expectations. Nolan is probably the most original filmmaker we have going right now. Polanski’s thriller already earned him the Berlin Film Festival Award.

Best Picture

Black Swan
The Fighter
The Ghost Writer
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
Mother
A Prophet
The Social Network
The Town
True Grit
Last Movie Out: A Tale of Two Escobars

Before I hear cries of “But Mother and A Prophet are from 2009, not 2010!” … Hold on… Take a big breath… A Prophet did not show up in Milwaukee until the end of January, and Mother came in March. Plus, Mother is actually still getting awards from various critics groups this year, so I am not entirely wacky.

These nominees would probably constitute most (if not all) of my top ten list of the year too. While the Academy acknowledged many of these films in this category, I feel that the omission of The Ghost Writer and The Town bother me, but only slightly.

As for A Tale of Two Escobars, I cannot remember the last time a documentary was so compelling and suspenseful. Sure, it played in one theatre in Los Angeles, and was seen by most on ESPN’s 30 for 30 series. However, it hooks you and enlightens you, which is what you demand from a documentary.

Nomination Totals:
Black Swan – 15 nominations
Inception – 10 nominations
The Social Network – 9 nominations
True Grit – 8 nominations
The Fighter – 7 nominations
How to Train Your Dragon – 7 nominations
The Ghost Writer – 6 nominations
Tron: Legacy – 6 nominations
The Town – 5 nominations
A Prophet – 4 nominations
Shutter Island – 4 nominations
Mother – 3 nominations
Toy Story 3 – 2 nominations
Blue Valentine – 1 nomination
Piranha 3-d: 1 nomination
Tangled – 1 nomination
Winter's Bone – 1 nomination
Hereafter- 1 nomination
Iron Man 2- 1 nomination
127 Hours- 1 nomination
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World- 1 nomination

What happened to Oscar Week? I warned you my enthusiasm was low this year. We'll get to the rest of the predictions over the weekend. For now, enjoy my favorite part of Oscar coverage, Preferred Oscar balloting- the things I would vote for if I had a vote. Posting later tonight, Dave's ballot!

Best Animated Feature:

The Illusionist
Tangled
How To Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3

Just now saw The Illusionist, a sleepy but beautiful film that has one of the most bittersweet endings for any animated film, ever. Tangled I might have enjoyed because it relied on the slapstick energy of early Disney cartoons more than the familiar Alan Mencken songs, but it was thoroughly entertaining either way.

Toy Story 3 managed to be moving, beautiful, and memorable despite not needing to exist in the first place, so I don't begrudge it winning this category. But I've got a huge soft spot for How To Train Your Dragon, which shouldn't have worked for so many reasons, but did. It's from Dreamworks Animation, known primarily for the unsubtle, diminishing returns of the Shrek series. It has historically innacurrate Vikings with inconsistent accents. But a good story, well-told, an adorable dragon, and the first 3D effects to actually sell me on the medium made me want to see it again the very next day (and later on that week).

More...

Best Art Direction:

The Ghost Writer
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
I Am Love
Inception
Tron: Legacy

Had a lot of trouble narrowing this one down, but I ended up with five of the most visually striking or memorable films. TRON may have been mostly digital, but if Avatar can win this category I don't feel bad about including it- I'm going to the gym mostly so I can pull of a light-suit when they become available. Scott Pilgrim matched everything to Bryan Lee O'Malley's graphic novel, down to some crazy minute details.

The Ghost Writer practically made another character out of an austere, modernist beach retreat location. Inception took a similar cue for its dreamworld, with just a dash of Escher. I Am Love, meanwhile, was as pristine as a Criterion Collection cover.

Best Cinematography:

Wally Pfister, Inception
Russell Boyd, The Way Back
Martin Ruhe, The American
Jeff Cronenweth, The Social Network
Roger F*CKING Deakins, True Grit

Nearly gave Deakins a second nomination for consulting on the look of How To Train Your Dragon, but his work in True Grit is of course beautiful, especially during a sequence at the end. I like Wally Pfister's clean, stately work every time he works with Nolan, but I get the feeling he's destined to be the Randy Newman of this category over the years- always there, never winning. Cronenweth's did fun things with windows and glass doors in The Social Network, plus he had to work digital and make it look like film, and put up with David Fincher.

In non-actual-nominee territory, epic natural vistas in The Way Back and Criterion-level austerity in The American were the most memorable films for me, visually.

Best Costume Design:

Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Tron: Legacy
I Am Love
True Grit
Shutter Island

I know, Scott Pilgrim mostly just matched t-shirts to the graphic novel. But also there were crazy stage outfits, and stuff... Kudos to the academy for recognizing the chic character on display in I Am Love, but shame on them for ignoring the classic 50s duds in Shutter Island. Let that be a lesson, Marty- February is not your month.

Best Makeup:

The Way Back
Black Swan
Tron: Legacy

Can't say I ever notice makeup work that much, so I'm glad this is a three-movie kind of deal. TRON had a bunch of people with white faces, right? Hats off to the makeup at the end of Black Swan which does most of the "bad girl" phase of Portman's role for her. But hands down the most impressive work to me was the blistering heatstroke in The Way Back, which had part of me fearing that Saoirse Ronan was actually about to die of thirst.

Best Original Score:

John Powell, How To Train Your Dragon
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Carter Burwell, True Grit
Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Daft Punk, Tron: Legacy

I've totally become a film score nerd over the last couple of years- I blame mostly Dave. So that makes this category hard to narrow down: near misses include Desplat's The Ghost Writer and Harry Potter 7.1, Nigel Godrich's bleep-blooping Scott Pilgrim score, Rachel Portman's Never Let Me Go, and James "LCD Soundsystem" Murphy's Greenberg.

But the best of the best include three actual nominees in Powell, Zimmer, and Reznor/Ross, whose work ran the gamut from traditional orchestral bombast (Dragon) to avant garde noise making (Network) to a potent mixture of the two (Inception).

I really enjoyed Carter Burwell's score for True Grit as well, with a small selection of traditional hymns broken apart and repeated as character themes over and over. Too bad the Academy doesn't like borrowing Public Domain material, disqualifying it just like There Will Be Blood a few years back. Finally, I don't think there was any Oscar snub that was easier to predict than Daft Punk, but the awesomeness of that score makes it still hard to take.

Best Original Song:

"Sticks and Stones," Jonsi, How To Train Your Dragon
"We Are Sex Bob-Omb," Beck, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
"Garbage Truck," Beck, SPVTW
"Threshold," Beck, SPVTW
"Black Sheep," Metric, SPVTW

Beyond the wonderful (albeit hard to decipher) song at the end of Dragon from Sigur Ros' frontman, the only songs I can even think of are all from Scott Pilgrim. But I feel pretty confident that I'd like them more than the rest, anyway.

Best Sound Editing/Sound Mixing/Visual Effects:

Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Tron: Legacy
The Social Network
How To Train Your Dragon

I just realized I nominated the same five films for all three of these categories, so this saves space. Four of them are filled with enough action and innovative imagery to justify inclusion (as for Dragon in VFX, insert joke about Avatar here), and I might be biased in favor of The Social Network because I watched all of the special features. But the Winklevoss effect was better than anything in Hereafter, come on. My mom thought they were real twins!

Best Film Editing:

Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
The Social Network
True Grit
Please Give

Inception and Scott Pilgrim earn a place on technical mastery- The Social Network team also had to navigate through hundreds of different takes, which must have been fun. But that movie was expertly paced as well, taking essentially a courtroom drama and making it a propusively narrative with an intricate structure.

True Grit is more of a study in langorous pauses, and catching your breath after instense showdowns. And the way-better-than-The-Kids-Are-All-Right Please Give is a perfect 90 minute film, intellectual comedy done right.

Best Writing - Adapted Screenplay:

Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Coen bros, True Grit
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone
Edgar Wright, Michael Bacall, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
4 people, How To Train Your Dragon

Dragon was mostly written by directors Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois, though the concept and structure existed before they were brought in. But it's a great, heartfelt script that survived the Dreamworks studio's normal "How many McDonald's toys can we get out of this?" mentality.

Wright and Bacall wisely decided to stick with Bryan Lee O'Malley's original words for nearly all of Scott Pilgrim, which worked out nicely when only fans of the graphic novels went to see it, anyway. The three Oscar nominees are pretty obvious choices.

Best Writing - Original Screenplay:

Nicole Holocefner, Please Give
Dan Fogelman, Tangled
Joon-ho Bong, Eun-kyo Park, Mother
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Brian Koppelman, Solitary Man

Before you ask, Disney themselves were pushing Tangled for original, and I'm gonna roll with it since this category had far less that appealed to me than adapted. Besides, do we have the credit the Grimm brothers with every story that has a girl with super-long hair trapped in a tower? Rapunzel itself was adapted anyway. The script itself is clever, fast, and winning.

In one of those Capote/Infamous parralells, there were two films this year that self-referentially commented on Michael Douglas and the characters he usually plays. I didn't see Wall Street 2, but I hear it was a giant mess- Solitary Man I found to be a smart, biting look at the used car salesman persona aura Douglas carries, even if I wasn't over the moon about his performance in it.

Inception in inconceivably going to lose to The King's Speech in this category on Sunday, because apparently juggling five different levels of reality at once is less impressive than "there was a handsome king who had a problem and then it got slightly better." Boo.

Mother was an interesting, involving modern noir, that manages to get you so invested that you don't think about any obvious twists that might be right around the corner.

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Leonardo DiCaprio, Shutter Island
George Clooney, The American
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Okay fine, Colin Firth is pretty great in The King's Speech. That's one out of 12 that makes sense to me. I'm usually not that into DiCaprio's usual stick, which boils down to "THIS IS SERIOUS. LOOK HOW SERIOUS MY FACE IS RIGHT NOW," but it worked in the very dramatic Shutter Island (and made Inception a little less fun than it could've been).

Eisenberg is a revelation in a very non-traditonal leading role, and Mark Wahlberg has been unjustly forgotten as the straight man to Bale and Leo's scenery chewing. And I wish I had seen the artful The American in theaters, for the cinematography yes, but also Clooney's angsty, more vulnerable than normal work.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Matt Damon, True Grit
Andrew Garfield, Never Let Me Go
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Ed Harris, The Way Back
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

That's right, two for upcoming Spider-Man Garfield, for being quiet at the right moments in Network and one profound howl of rage near the end of Never Let Me Go. Harris and Hawkes play badasses just getting by in harsh conditions of various kinds, and Matt Damon is the MVP of True Grit for me since he has to keep a delicate balance between buffoonish antagonist and hero.

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Catherine Keener, Please Give
Rebecca Hall, Please Give
Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Hallee Steinfeld, True Grit

Lawrence and Steinfeld have been everywhere this awards season- it's all richly deserved. I don't know how many people saw I Am Love, exactly, but it clearly wasn't enough- can anyone tell me if Swinton's Italian is as good as her performance, though?

And can you tell I really loved Please Give? What does Catherine Keener have to do to get an Oscar people? Be in something other than a comedy? Rebecca Hall, my Frost/Nixon era marriage proposal still stands. Think about it.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer
Amanda Peet, Please Give
Ellen Wong, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Blake Lively, The Town
Keira Knightley, Never Let Me Go

I'm not sure if Blake Lively was that good in The Town or if she just wowwed me nby being so much more dynamic than in her affectless "Gossip Girl" role- but either way, impressive (though she's clearly mailing it in during The Green Lantern trailer).

Peet is aces in Please Give, a caustic, brutally honest character that defys any artificially loud performance tropes. Knightley makes a late run in Never Let Me Go for sympathy after playing a self-involved poser for the entire film that nearly works. Wong is a bundle of energy that stands out in an already hyper film, and Williams makes The Ghost Writer warrant an immediately re-watch to see just how quietly masterful she was.

Best Director:

David Fincher, The Social Network
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Edgar Wright, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik, Winter's Bone

I think these are all pretty clear cut, from the nominations above. Winter's Bone impressed me in mood and atmosphere, breaking a tie with Holocefner and Please Give for the last spot.

Best Picture:

The Ghost Writer
How To Train Your Dragon
Inception
Please Give
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
The Social Network
TRON: Legacy
True Grit
The Way Back
Winter's Bone

Sorry, The Town. Too bad, Shutter Island. If only you had laser-disc battles too, Never Let Me Go. Seriously, it was tough to get down to ten, despite everyone else on the internet claiming this was a week year. They can't all be 2007, folks, don't get greedy.

In a vaccuum, would I have been nicer to The King's Speech? Ehh, maybe. If I wasn't an Oscar fanatic, I probably wouldn't have bothered with it in the first place. I also just sort of enjoyed The Fighter and Black Swan, which ended up with one nomination apiece. I've got a big treatise on Best Picture in the works to explain all this.

Totals-

Scott Pilgrim- 14 (in 11 categories)
The Social Network- 11
Inception- 10
True Grit- 9
How To Train Your Dragon- 8
TRON: Legacy- 8
Please Give- 6 (in 5 categories)
Winter's Bone- 5
The Way Back- 4
Ghost Writer- 3
I Am Love- 3
Never Let Me Go- 2
Shutter Island- 2
Tangled- 2
The American- 2
Black Swan- 1
The Fighter- 1
Toy Story 3- 1
The Town- 1
The King's Speech- 1
The Town- 1
Solitary Man- 1
Mother- 1
The Illusionist- 1

I had a revelation today- following the Oscar race like I do means the only possible reaction I can have to the annual nominee announcements is anger.

For example, I long expected that Daft Punk's score for TRON wouldn't come anywhere near a nomination, so when it didn't, in fact, get one I felt nothing. Even though that score is hands down my favorite score of the year, and made its film infinitely better.

I didn't expect, as nearly everyone didn't, Christopher Nolan to get the shaft AGAIN, and Inception to get further dissed in the Editing category. This is because he's been included by the guild, the BAFTAs, virtually every awards-type-thing that has space for five directors has had the same five, but the Academy up and decided the Coen brothers were better.

Now, I didn't expect Inception to win for Director, or Editing, so it really is pretty meaningless news, but I didn't see it coming, so I was mad.

But just because AMPAS is trying to goad Nolan into breaking down and making a Holocaust movie, we shouldn't take their capricious decisions to heart- they don't mean anything, not when films mean something to us.

It's all what we make of it. In that spirit, things that were great about the announcements:

-Winter's Bone gets four nominations! John Hawkes as well, officially moving him past 'Hey It's That Guy!' status, which is long overdue.

-I did enjoy True Grit quite a whole lot, so its somewhat surprising 10 nominations is pretty cool, even coming at Inception's expense. I'm starting to think that this is finally cinematographer Roger F*cking Deakins' year.

-THERE IS AN ANIMATED SHORT NOMINATED CALLED 'THE LOST THING' BY SHAUN TAN! THIS IS THE REASON CAPSLOCK WAS INVENTED!

-Even without Daft Punk, the score category has three of my faves: John Powell's stirring How To Train Your Dragon work, Hans Zimmer frantic Inception strings, and Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross' progessive, amazing soundscapes for The Social Network.

-Even though it's been cleaning up to this point, the love for The Social Network is still gratifying, with eight nominations total. Except for the two supporting categories, it'll be going toe-to-toe with The King's Speech come Oscar day (contemporary dramas never get considered for Costumes or Art Direction, so those don't count as an advantage).

Finally, how did I do? Middling to well, I reckon. 79% overall (75/95), 85% in the Big Eight categories (38/45). The only categories in which I predicted every nominee were Best Supporting Actress (which everyone got) and Animated Film (which also wasn't that hard).

Early predictions for Oscar Sunday- it looks bleak now, but I just can't see The Social Network losing, not after the run it's had. It pulls in 5 trophies (Picture, Director, Ad. Screenplay, Editing, and Score) to The King's Speech's 3 or 4 (Actor, Or. Screen, and Art Direction for sure, maybe Costume). The Social Network could even take home Sound Mixing, too, since the Oscars are hating on Inception so much. True Grit for Cinematography, I feel good about it in costume for some reason, and Hailee Steinfeld is the only acting nominee with a shot at upsetting the frontrunner (Leo). Firth, Portman, and Bale are locked in. Toy Story 3 already got the Animated Oscar in the mail, and Randy Newman wins another Original song Oscar.

Is that everything? Oh, Inside Job for documentary and Inception consoles itself with Sound Editing and Visual Effects.

Also Foreign Film will go to something I don't pick. You heard it here first!

Nominations are out tomorrow? Totally snuck up on me this year. Categories not appearing in this list: All three short films, doc feature, foreign film. Didn't see any of 'em.

Sound Mixing:

127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
Tron: Legacy

Sound Editing:

127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy

I used to think I was good at these categories, then I just realized I was overly proud of myself for being able to tell between them.

Makeup:

Alice In Wonderland
The Way Back
The Wolfman

It seems like it would be easy to pick three out of seven finalists, but I can never call makeup correctly. I looked at the last ten years, and creature-features are pretty consistently nominated, hence The Wolfman. Alice's primary marketing strategy early on was to go "Hey! Look at all the makeup Johnny Depp's wearing! IT IS A LOT OF MAKEUP DON'T YOU THINK?" And there has to be a respectable choice to actually give the award to, which my gut is telling me is The Way Back remarkable sun-bleached and dehydrated faces.

Original Song:

“You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from Burlesque
“If I Rise” from 127 Hours
“I See the Light” from Tangled
“We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3
“Shine” from Waiting for Superman

Is it lazy to pick the most obvious one? Probably. But everytime I put a lot of research, trying to listen to as many of the 60ish songs that I can, I get burned by an unpredictable, random slate of nominees. So I feel safe that at least three of these end up vying for the prize: Alan Mencken (Tangled) and Randy Newman (TS3) are returning Disney-winners, A. R. Rahman (127 Hours) of course won with a Slumdog Millionaire song, Cher is Cher I figure (no matter how bad the film is), and the last Davis Guggenheim documentary (An Inconvenient Truth) made Melissa Etheridge an Oscar winner, so why not his new one?

Original Score:

Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Danny Elfman, Alice In Wonderland
John Powell, How To Train Your Dragon
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Hans Zimmer, Inception

Whither Daft Punk, huh? Whither?!

Visual Effects:

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON Legacy

They already narrowed this field down to seven, despite expanding the field to five. So you just have to pick the two that'll miss, in this case Hereafter (one good tsunami, not musch else) and Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World- because the Academy is a noted enemy of fun.

Art Direction:

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Why did the guilds love Alice in Wonderland so much if it was so terrible? True Grit finally gets some respect here at least.

Costumes:

Alice In Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

When Julie Taymour does Shakespeare it always shows up somewhere, even if it's a trainwreck. The other four are foregone conclusions.

Cinematography:

Russell Boyd, The Way Back
Danny Cohen, The King's Speech
Roger F*CKING Deakins, True Grit
Matthew Libitique, Black Swan
Wally Pfister, Inception

Gut feeling on Boyd sneaking in, though it might just be because I saw it three days ago. Pretty sure that's Deakins' legal middle name, by the way.

Editing, Director:

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Why waste space if the five 'real' Best Picture nominees are going to clean house in these two as well? Those directors would be mssrs. Aronofsky, Russell, Nolan, Hooper, and Fincher.

Animated Film:

How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

The need for 16 entries to get five nominees seems dumb- why not just go with whatever gets enough votes? Then we'd have room for the fourth deserving entry, Tangled.

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

I think I read that the powers that be have decided Steinfeld is too young to be a lead actress, history notwithstanding. Otherwise, Adams might drop out.

Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Sorry, La Boeuf (Matt Damon), but Garfield deserves it.

Lead Actress:

Annette Benning, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianna Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Nicole Kidman may have pushed out Williams with a late run in Rabbit Hole, but I just can't take her off the list.

Lead Actor:

Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Again, lots of people are predicting that Gosling will lose out to Robert Duvall in Get Low playing an Old Guy Who Is Old And Stuff, but I just don't see it.

Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay:

The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Best Picture, Original Screenplay:

Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The King's Speech
The Kids Are All Right

Again, why wast column space when our ten BP nominees are evenly split into screenplay groups? 127 Hours has just been fading too far too quickly for me to feel better about it than The Town or Winter's Bone. The Ghost Writer is probably better than three or four of these movies, but will be shut out (unless is sneaks into score or something). Shutter Island's February-release strategy worked out better for the box offic than the awards chances. And I really believe that with a real fall release pattern instead of a last minute "Oh yeah, did that come out?" dumpoff, The Way Back could have won enough voters over.

Totals:

The King's Speech- 11
Black Swan, Inception- 10
The Social Network- 8
The Fighter- 7
True Grit, The Kids Are All Right, Alice in Wonderland, Toy Story 3- 5
127 Hours- 4
The Town, Winter's Bone, Tron: Legacy- 3
Blue Valentine, The Way Back, How To Train Your Dragon- 2
A Bunch Of Other Stuff- 1

1. Most Media Outlets Are Annoyingly Unfocused

I decided to include relevant quotes in previews of the acting races, so I searched the blagosphere for interviews with all 20 nominees. I will now paraphrase a couple of them for you:

THE MEDIA: Jeff Bridges, what was it like to be old in Crazy Heart!?

Jeff Bridges: Well, I-

THE MEDIA: WHO CARES!?! TRON! SAY SOMETHING ABOUT THE TRON SEQUEL!

Or, alternately:

THE MEDIA: Carey Mulligan, what's it like to play so much younger in An Education?!

Carey Mulligan: Well, I-

THE MEDIA:: WHO CARES! WALL STREET! SAY SOMETHING ABOUT THE WALL STREET SEQUEL!

Carey Mulligan: Well, I-

THE MEDIA: WHO CARES! SAY SOMETHING ABOUT YOUR BOYFRIEND SHIA LABEOUF FROM TRANSFORMERS! AAAAAH!

2. Money Can't Buy You Love

I think we all know what the biggest story is- or as Roger Ebert tweeted uber-succintly: (! > $)

3. There Are Certain Categories I Will Never Get Right

For the curious, I lost to Dave again 16 to 18, exactly the same result as last year.

But for the three years I've been doing this now, there are four categories I've yet to predict correctly even once: Documentary Short, both Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, and most embarrassingly Cinematography.

The other four I missed this year were Adapted Screenplay (the only true surprise of the night) Foreign Language and the remaining two short films (with a Wallace & Gromit film losing Animated Short the only other thing remotely shocking). Dave managed to miss only Foreign film, Sound Editing, Costumes, and Art Direction in addition to those two upsets.

4. Meryl Streep Will Never Win Another Oscar

I'm sorry, this is true. There's got to be a mathematical formula out there for the "overdue" factor- it would be age, number of popular roles, and some sort of personality index (off the charts for Jeff Bridges, negative for Eddie Murphy a few years back), all divided by total wins and nominations. So Bullock had a big number on top over nothing on the bottom (let's call it 1 because you can't divide by 0), while Streep had a huge factor to divide by. Of course this same formula would probably tell me Christopher Plummer should have won Supporting Actor..

5. There Is A Surefire Way To Win Adapted Screenply

And that is to mention the novel that was adapted every time people say the title, as with Precious: Based On The Novel 'Push' By Sapphire. Some people say that it was Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner's uncomfortable credit battle that cost them, but even so you didn't have to look hard at the list to find a replacement- it says it right there!

6. Do What The Guilds Tell You

The only mismatches for each respective guild this year were Adapted Screenplay (Sheldon and Turner won the WGA), Sound Effects Editing (Avatar), and Cinematography (The White Ribbon won the guild. Otherwise if you took the same choices as the CAS, ACE, ADG, CDG, PGA, DGA, SAG, VES, ASC, MPSE, and the WGA winners you'd have an easy 12/15 to start with, plus gimmes in Animated, Documentary, Makeup, Score, and Song. That's 17 correct choices without breaking a sweat, and then you just spitball Foreign Film and the three shorts to see if you can break twenty. Maybe that's what I'll do next year...

Here are some quick numbers for you:

DAVE: 67/96 noms correct, or 70%. 11 Categories with 1 or fewer misses, nailing all of Actress, Supporting Actor, and Director.

ME: 72/96 correct, or 75%. 11 Categories with 1 or fewer misses, nailing Actress, Cinematography, Visual FX, and Adapted Screenplay.

-We both missed two in Best Picture: Dave believed in Invictus more than District 9, I passed up A Serious Man for Crazy Heart on a wild hunch, and we both thought much more of Star Trek’s chances than the surprise inclusion The Blind Side.

-What does the field tell us? The Blind Side making the top ten pretty much cements Actress for Bullock, which means it’ll be four boring acting races again this year as Bridges, Waltz, and Mo’Nique haven’t been sweating it for months now.

-Two bad signs for contenders: Avatar, already losing momentum, missed out in Original Screenplay to also-rans like The Messenger and A Serious Man- granted the screenplay was always the weakest link to begin with. More worrying is Up In The Air getting shut out of Editing in favor of Precious and District 9- Reitman looks like he’ll have two contenders in a row that only go home with a screenplay award.

-What’s depressing is that one can reasonably call all the major awards right now, with Bigelow, The Hurt Locker, and Mark Boal’s script thereof, joining Reitman and Turner and the four acting favorites above. But I get excited for the techs as much as anything else, and there’s some interesting races left there.

-What’s amazing is The Hurt Locker needing only one acting nomination to match Avatar with 9 overall- nearly going bow for blow in the techs, with both sounds, editing, cinematography, SCORE. If you cancel out the common nods, it’s Avatar in Visual Effects and Art Direction matched against The Hurt Locker in Leading Actor and Original Screenplay, and there’s a clear winner there.

-True Surprises: Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart? I was feeling pretty good about my Best Picture prediction when that popped up, but alas. A small, wonderful looking animated feature called The Secret Of Kells knocked out Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs leaving the category probably the strongest one front to back in quality.

-My big question- ten nominations was fun and all, but does anyone expect people to believe there are more than five real contenders (those being the five nominated for Director as well)? You could say District 9’s editing nod makes it a viable sixth man, but I don’t think you’d really believe yourself.

-What I’m Most Proud Of: Calling Harry Potter in cinematography, and Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Parnassus in a couple of categories. I was worried I was picking with my heart too much. I’m always stoked to get ANY of Original Song, and three is a record, I think. Plus In The Loop for adapted screenplay made me audibly cheer.

-Now to start seeing if I have any way at all of seeing the shorts, the docs, and the foreigns before showtime. Normally I make sure I’ve seen all of the Picture nominees as well, but this year… I do want to see An Education and A Serious Man if I can, but The Blind Side and Precious aren’t a priority. Eight out of ten is good, right?

7:08 AM: I wait for the livestream.com thing to load. Here's hoping my connection can take it!

7:10 AM: Ach! Thanks for the feedback noise in the earbuds! Right now I get a beeping noise and an empty stage. Switching to the faceook feed.

7:13 AM: Okay, no more sound at all. Look! People milling about! I thought there would be some sort of preamble, but I guess they didn't feel the need to hype up the super-nerds who are tuning in to this in the first place. I guess I get to kill the next 25 minutes.

7:16 AM: Playing some music to make sure my sound is, in fact, still on. It's "Aside" by The Weakerthans up first, if you were wondering.

7:19 AM: Couldn't they have gotten Bill Murray to announce these, on Groundhog Day?

7:22 AM: On a related note, I hear that if AMPAS president Tom Sherak sees his shadow today, we get FIFTEEN nominees next year.

7:30 AM: Guy with a think Bronx accent is telling us the rules. Ten categories to announce, press kits, blah blah blah.

7:31 AM: Apparently there's a big problem with the press loitering when this is over, 'cause the guy stresses that they need to be OUT of the parking garage in two hours' time.

7:32 AM: That was it? Now we get to listen to restless crowd noise for five minutes before the real show.

7:37 AM: One minute! The excitement is palpable. Will Anne Hathaway look tired at all at 5:38 in the morning? Will she surprisingly read her own name for Bride Wars?

7:38 AM: Orchestra! Boom! Tom Sherak begins by making Sid Ganis look suave, and brings on Hathaway, lookin great at any hour.

7:39: S. Actress: Penelope Cruz? Damn! Kendrick, Farmiga (which Sherak butchers), Gyllenhaal? and Mo'Nique.

7:39: S. Actor: Matt Damon? Curses! Waltz gets a mild applause. Also, Plummer, Tucci, and Harrelson.

7:40: Actress. Scattered cheers for Bullock. No surprises. Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe, and Mirren.

7:40: Actor. Raises fist: FREEMAN!! Hooray for Renner. Firth, Bridges (no time for another standing O) and Clooney.

7:41: Director. Lee Daniels makes it as well. All of my gutsy calls ar going up in flames. Tarantino, Bigelow, Cameron, and Reitman.

7:41: A Serious Man and the Messenger in Orig Screenplay. Basterds, Locker, and Up. Ooooh, no Avatar!

7:41: Adapted. Boom! In The Loop! Called it! Nailed this whole category (and actress). District 9, An Education (Hornby five!), Precious, and Up In The Air.

7:42: I've only even heard of two of the foreign films.

7:42: The Secret of Kells? WTF?

7:42 AM: BP TIME! Avatar.. BLIND SIDE?-GAK! District 9! An Education! HUrt Locker! Basterds! Precious. A Serious Man. Up! and Up In The Air. No Star Trek? Ah, well.

7:45 AM: Aaand now it's back to milling around. I'm trying to check awardsdaily for the full list, but it's ofcourse crashed. Oscars.org it is. Full list up already.

7:47 AM: A disturbing amount of people on the "see what people are saying on facebook" thingy are all like "AVATAR!!!! YEEEESSSS!!!!" Cause for alarm?

7:51 AM: Overheard in the crowd: Some douche saying "So it's Jason [Reitman] versus James [Cameron] for best picture AND director!" Uh, where have you been, random guy? Not heard of a little Iraq-War movie and some lady that won the DGA?

Full post-mortem on the noms on the blogs later.

Oh, snap. Time for some straight up prognosticating.

Spoiler alert: This is going to take a while. I have thoughts about all nineteen categories (the three short films, documentary feature and foreign language will not be appearing, since I have seen a grand total of… one of them. That would be the short that ran in front of Up).

SOUND MIXING

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge Of The Fallen

I’ll stick with the guild nominees from the Cinema Audio Society on this one. Big, loud picture always have the easiest route, and the box office for Avatanic, Star Trek, Transformers, and District 9 guarantee that the screeners got maximum exposure. Thought Pixar’s been a favorite, Up wasn’t really a sonically diverse film, and it was a step back from the inventiveness of Wall-E or the The Incredibles, so I think The Hurt Locker gets a token-war-film nomination (because Nine is so dismal it won’t get a token-musical nomination).

Sadly the infamous Kevin O’Connell will not receive a twenty-first nomination (without winning) for Public Enemies. He’s always my favorite Oscar subplot when he’s got a chance to end the streak. It would be pretty cruel if his former team on Transformers wins without him, though.

More...

SOUND EDITING

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Up

I put in Up on the basis that it’s an animated film, which means all sounds were created from nothing, so I see it getting a nod for the creation of effects (rather than for the mixing of effects with sound recorded on-set). And I took out Transformers: Explodier and Incoherenter because it’s got the least buzz of all the films left, and because the mixing of the fx with recordings of real military crafts and such seems like the safer bet.

SPECIAL EFFECTS

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Also, remember when the first Transformers was nominated for special effects and everyone was sure it would win and then it didn’t? I’m not getting burned like that again. Thanks for playing, movies that aren’t Avatar. Enjoy hearing your names read at the Oscars.

COSTUMES

The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Two films seem pretty safe: Victoria and Nine (despite the flop) are locked in, but the other three are anybody’s guess. So I ended up with three home-picks- Basterds’s designer has been nominated for WWII work in the past, and the final two did get Costume Designer’s Guild nominations.

MAKEUP

District 9
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Star Trek

Aliens, Gilliam-induced acid hallucinations, and more aliens.

ART DIRECTION

Avatar
District 9
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
Sherlock Holmes

District 9 is my gutsy call here- though it did get a BAFTA nomination. The real question is Avatar- it seems inevitable, but this award is shared with set designers, and the votes haven’t been kind to green-screen work so far. But you can’t ignore $2 billion.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

Sorry, Nine. You were the favorite until you crashed and burned. Bruno Delbonnel, of Amelie fame, steals the spot for his Harry Potter work, and the others came straight from the guild.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Alexandre Desplat, Fantastic Mr. Fox
Michael Giacchino, Star Trek
Michael Giacchino, Up
Marvin Hamlisch, The Informant!
James Horner, Avatar

Giacchino for Up is the sure winner, but he gets the twofer this year. Desplat has something like seventeen scores eligible, but Foxwas the best (and I don’t think AMPAS wants to nominate Twilight: New Moon for anything). Everyone was super-excited about Hamlisch returning to film scores after a decade, and Avatar continues to get in every categories’ business, even though Horner’s droning score is more of a sleep aid.

ORIGINAL SONG

Avatar- “I Will See You”
Crazy Heart- “The Weary Kind”
The Princess and the Frog- “Almost There”
The Princess and the Frog- “Down In New Orleans”
Where The Wild Things Are- “All Is Love”

This category can bite me. Every year it makes no sense. I feel comfortable predicting that much like Bruce Springsteen last year, the voters will decide that the Oscar telecast doesn’t need a performance from U2 (Brothers) or Paul McCartney (Everybody’s Fine). My gut tells me they’ll either only nominate three songs again, or do the patented Disney-double-dip again and make everyone groan. Here’s hoping Randy Newman wins and gives everyone the finger.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Avatar
Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess And The Frog
Up

Though it’s excitingly the first year there will be five nominees in this category, it turned out to be rather easy to predict, with the winner even easier. Oh well.

EDITING

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up In The Air

This category normally mirrors the Best Picture heavies, but with a random action movie thrown in (like The Bourne Ultimatum that one time). I went with District 9 to take the place of Precious, and Inglourious Basterds to get a mention as well, despite missing the guild nomination.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

District 9
An Education
In The Loop
Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire
Up In The Air

How rare is it for this category to only have two locks in it? Those would be Precious and Up In The Air, the surefire winner. The rest could go many places, from Fantastic Mr. Fox to Star Trek, or even Where The Wild Things Are.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

(500) Days Of Summer
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up

Sorry, Coen brothers. I’m still not even clear why it’s in this category and not adapted, anyway, since A Serious Man was based on the book of Job, but hey, Avatar is just Pocahontas with new names. Summer takes the last spot among Best Picture nominees here.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique, Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire
Julianne Moore, A Single Man

Can we ever have a year when three of the four acting races aren’t clearly decided months before the ceremony? No?

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Boom! Mackie’s going to pull a Michael Shannon and sneak in to this category. You read it here… maybe not first, but at some point. Mark it. The rest of the field is pretty set.

LEADING ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

It’s not going to be long before someone edits all of the “Julie” portions out of Julie & Julia (much like how people edited Jar Jar Binks out of The Phantom Menace) and leave only Meryl Streep’s performance as Julia Child. But Sandra Bullock could deny her a third Oscar, though her win would feel like little more than a bone toss to The Blind Side fans, with their “values” and “decency” and other foreign things.

LEADING ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Let me just say, if Morgan Freeman gets in over Matt Damon, I’ll be pissed- because I feel like it shouldn’t happen, but many other places are predicting it will. But he was great in The Informant!- it was even one of those Oscar-type roles where you gain weight and act crazy.

DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Neil Blomkamp, District 9
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Reitman, Up In The Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Going for broke: Daniels out, Blomkamp in. There’s usually one DGA nominee that’s not in the category, and Daniels is number five on the list right now.

PICTURE

I’m going to do this in order of probability to win, with thoughts on each one.

1. The Hurt Locker

Hopefully it didn’t move to front-runner status a bit too soon, with more than a month for people to settle back into acceptance of Avatar’s inevitability. But how great would it be if the critics and AMPAS agreed on the best film of the year for once?

2. Avatar

Look, I was pretty upset last year when the academy decided it didn’t have to nominate The Dark Knight just because it made a ton of money. I suppose, however, that I can at least respect the attempt at integrity. But if they go ahead and reverse themselves and give Cameron little Oscars with 3D glasses on them, I am done. You hear me? Done*.

3. Up In The Air

Still not quite dead, the favorite from festival season is still the most traditional “Oscar picture” left in the race. And Clooney demonstrated with the Haiti telethon that his smile alone can get a whole lot done.

4. Inglourious Basterds

Tarantino’s film is a masterpiece, but it still had enough edge to keep it from the top of AMPAS’ lists, even though it seems relatively mild compared to something like Kill Bill. It’s only a matter of time before he makes his No Country For Old Men and is fully embraceable.

5. Precious: Based On The Novel Push By Sapphire

At one point it seemed like this year’s Slumdog, a small picture destined to ride a wave of white guilt to the podium. But after a little backlash, it seems to have lost steam to the point that Mo’Nique’s award is all it will get.

6. District 9

I seriously feel that this film will be the Nader to Avatar’s Al Gore, if you know what I mean.

7. An Education

Old-school Oscar film number two. Carey Mulligan and the screenplay have kept the profile high enough to keep it in mind.

8. Up

Hooray for animated films getting token respect. I liked Up as much as the next person, but was it better than Wall-E?

9. Star Trek
10. Crazy Heart

Yep, those are my last two. Yeah, that’s right- I’m predicting an across the board shut-out for BOTH A Serious Man and Invictus. No one seems to mention them at all.

We’ll see you back tomorrow with how the predictions went, and some counter-programming from Dave.

TOTALS:

Avatar- 11
The Hurt Locker- 9
Inglourious Basterds- 9
District 9- 9
Star Trek- 6
Up In The Air- 7
Up- 5
Precious- 4
An Education- 3
Crazy Heart- 3
The Princess and the Frog- 3
Sherlock Holmes- 2
The Imaginarium Of Dr. Parnassus- 2
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince- 2
Fantastic Mr. Fox- 2
The Informant!- 2
A Single Man- 2
The Last Station- 2
A Bunch Of Others- 1

*This is not true. I'll never be done with the Oscars.

It's that time again, folks. Here are my friend Dave's picks for everything but the shorts, documentary, and foreign- because we live in Milwaukee and haven't seen any of them.

Best Sound Effects

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

LOUD NOISES!

Best Sound Effects Editing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
Up

LOUDER NOISES!

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Best Special Effects

Avatar
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Pretty things…

Best Costume Design

An Education
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
The Young Victoria

Prettier things…

Best Production Design

The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
A Single Man
Where the Wild Things Are

More pretty things…

Best Makeup

District 9
Star Trek
The Young Victoria

Best Cinematography

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
A Single Man

::Nodding Head::

Best Original Score

Avatar
An Education
A Single Man
Star Trek
Up

Best Song

Avatar – “I Will See You”
Brothers – “Winter”
Crazy Heart – “The Weary Kind”
Everybody’s Fine – “I Want to Come Home”
Where the Wild Things Are – “All Is Love” (not a homer pick at all…)

Best Animated Feature

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Best Film Editing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air

One category to decide them all… Sort of…

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9
An Education
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious
Up in the Air

I feel pretty confident about this category. I have not further explain as to why.

Best Original Screenplay

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

Same here…

Mo’Nique Delivers Another Speech Best Supporting Actress

Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Mo’Nique – Precious
Julianne Moore – A Single Man
Samantha Morton – The Messenger

This was a pretty easy category to pick. I would have put Penelope Cruz here for Nine, but that film has just fallen off the radar. I placed Morton in her place. Dark Horse: Penelope Cruz – Nine, if she is still the voter’s darling.

The Christoph Waltz Award Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon – Invictus
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

Too easy. Dark Horse: Anthony Mackie – The Hurt Locker

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Helen Mirren – The Last Station
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia

The Bullock-Streep title bout takes center stage here. The two newcomers, Mulligan and Sidibe, will be rewarded with nominations – and be content with that. I figure Mirren for the last spot because she’s always a favorite and there really is no one else. Dark Horse: Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Matt Damon – The Informant!
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker

I feel that Bridges, Clooney, and Firth are locks. I would bet the farm on them. The last two spots have been toss ups over the last several weeks. Damon has gotten a Golden Globe nomination, while Renner got a BAFTA nomination. I feel that those two are the most likely candidates because Renner leads the most lauded film of the year, and Damon is going to get nominated because it is a good performance (from what I hear) and he has not been nominated since Good Will Hunting. Dark Horse: RDJ – Sherlock Holmes

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
James Cameron – Avatar
Lee Daniels – Precious
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

Another category where four are locks (Bigelow, Cameron, Reitman, and Tarantino), and there is one slot open. Eastwood, Daniels, and JJ Abrams are the most likely to fill that last spot. Pete Docter will be overlooked for Up because animation has not come that far – yet. I figure it to be Daniels because the DGA gave him the nomination over Eastwood and Abrams has not seen any love this year. Dark Horse: Lone Scherfig – An Education.

Best Picture

Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air

I feel very confident about nine of these ten being here. The one I don’t? A Serious Man. I feel that the last spot comes down to the Coen Brothers’ film or District 9. Invictus gets in on pure prestige, as its odds have faded considerably since its release. Dark Horse: District 9

Totals:
Avatar – 10
The Hurt Locker – 9
Inglourious Basterds – 8
Up in the Air – 7
Precious – 6
A Single Man – 6
Up – 6
Star Trek - 6
An Education – 5
A Serious Man – 3
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – 3
Where the Wild Things Are – 2
Crazy Heart – 2
Fantastic Mr. Fox – 2
Invictus – 2
The Last Station – 2
The Messenger – 2
Nine – 2
District 9 – 2
The Young Victoria – 2
The Blind Side – 1
Brothers – 1
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – 1
Coraline – 1
Everybody’s Fine – 1
The Informant! – 1
Julie and Julia – 1
The Lovely Bones – 1
The Princess and the Frog – 1

So as you may have heard, yesterday the Oscars (or AMPAS, if you prefer) announced the decision to increase the field of Best Picture nominations from five to ten.

With various reactions around the internet (Spout always does a great job rounding up the consensus), I find myself mostly liking the idea. Why, you ask? Let’s make a list.

1. Nothing Should Get Skipped Over Now, Finally

Right?

Some years we’re lucky enough to get well more than five films that deserve inclusion, but usually we only see three of them make it, while the rest get skipped over for whatever the studios have politicked into the field (like The Reader last year, or Juno the year before).

Now, theoretically, nothing should be relegated to the perennial sixth contender.

2. The Ratings For The Telecast Could Improve

Everyone seems to think this move is in response to the outrage over The Dark Knight’s snub last year, but honestly anyone who was really mad about it was probably the type of person who still watched the Oscars anyway (like I was, and did).

I would bet that this is more of an inclusive way to cast a wider net for the telecast- if they were worried about just certain films getting overlooked, they could have gone with six or seven nominations, or made the number conditional on some sort of voting rubric (both of which make more sense than randomly doubling the total).

But by increasing it to ten, AMPAS is more or less guaranteeing that a random moviegoer will have seen at least one of them.

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3. It Doesn’t Really “Dilute The Prestige” Of A Nomination

Just saying. Actual films nominated for Best Picture since 1990: Ghost, The Godfather Part III, Scent Of A Woman, Four Weddings And A Funeral, Babe, Jerry Maguire, American Beauty, The Sixth Sense, In The Bedroom, The Hours, Seabiscuit, Ray, Sideways, Crash, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, and The Reader.

Now, clearly this is all my opinion, but not one of those screams “Best Picture” to me, even though they’re pretty good (except Crash and The Godfather Part III, which are awful by all accounts).

If you insist on thinking that a nomination is now half as noteworthy, then at least undeserving nominees are only half as egregious. Those who have the free time already decide which of the five nominees are also-rans as soon as the field is announced, now they just have five more to add to that list.

4. It Makes Me More Excited For This Year’s Oscars

Hey, it’s the first time since Casablanca that this has happened! At least it’s novel. Plus, with no frontrunner at this early stage, it’s fun to imagine the possibilities. As many speculate, this seems to push things like Star Trek and Up into the “likely contenders” category, instead of crowd pleasers that would certainly have been neglected.

Now I have to completely revise my likely Best Picture nominees list, which has just been in my head until now. For fun, here it is after yesterday, in no particular order:

Invictus (Eastwood film about Nelson Mandela)
The Informant (Soderbergh film starring Matt Damon)
Shutter Island (Scorsese film starring Leonardo DiCaprio)
The Road (Pulitzer-winning book made Viggo Mortensen movie)
Biutiful (Javier Bardem starrer from the director of Babel)
Star Trek
Up
Broken Embraces (Almodovar/Penelope Cruz collaboration du jour)
Brothers (Jake Gylenhaal vehicle from the director of In America)
Avatar (James Cameron’s new Sci Fi epic).

And I had to actually look things up to think of ten! That’s the crazy part. This is to say nothing of films that I am iffy about (for BP, anyway) that become contenders if the reviews are good, like Public Enemies, The Time Traveler’s Wife, The Lovely Bones, Nine (the musical, not the CGI rag-doll apocalypse thing)- and even the crazy longshot odds for Where The Wild Things Are must’ve just doubled.

So you’ve got a tentative thumbs up from me, Academy, but I was already gonna watch anyway. Hopefully such a major move makes you less afraid to overhaul categories that need it even more, like Original Song, Original Score, and Foreign Film.

My only real “aw” thought is how sad it is for the entire field in 2007, the only year that I’ve been following this stuff that could’ve sustained ten real nominees. You had the Academy’s five, which included two masterpieces (No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood), one near-masterpiece (Atonement), an awesome throwback thriller (Michael Clayton) and the fun but happy-to-be-there Juno. But it was such a great year that it would have been nice to add The Diving Bell And The Butterfly, Sweeney Todd, Zodiac, Away From Her, and something actually popular like The Bourne Ultimatum or Ratatouille.

6:57 PM CST: Seriously we (I'm watching this year's telecast with my folks) just flipped from Andy Rooney to Barbara Walters. Can we retire people forcibly from tv journalism when they start saying random old grandparent things? Enough is enough already.

6:58: Time for half an hour of red carpet pre-show. Just so you're aware, I don't care who anybody is wearing, even if it's the dead flesh of an actual person.

7:00: Oh, it's pronounced "Tah-Rah-Gee" P. Henson. That's one mystery solved.

7:01: Tim Gunn is worth fifty of the Riverses of the world, but he needs to do better than ask Kate Winslet if she's more worried about "winning or tripping."

7:03: As Dave would say (if he didn't have to work, like a loser), Josh Brolin- luckiest man alive... This other silver-haired guy (henceforth "Other Guy") seems to make people uncomfortable, while Tim Gunn makes people happy (plus I do agree that stripper vs. nun is not a fair fight- meaning Marisa Tomei in the Wrestler vs. Amy Adams in Doubt).

7:09: I care about Valentino dresses? I'm getting something to drink.

7:11: The entire cast of Slumdog Millionaire! The "rags to riches" story of the movie's success is apparently a case of "life imitating art," according to our interviewer lady. Did they all sleep in garbage shanties last night?...Oh, don't talk to Mickey Rourke, good lord. I'm regretting that pick already.

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7:13: Robert Downey, Jr.! Save this red carpet for me! What? Stop talking to his wife! Other Guy is terrible- he didn't set RDJ up for a single quip... I understand that Miley Cyrus can sing, but her speaking voice makes me grind my back teeth together...

7:16: A trailer for Knowing! Nothing says Oscar night like the trailer for Knowing. Or perhaps Antonio Banderas as the Nasonex bee.

7:20: The cheesy montage to accountants just makes me wish Vesper Lynd was carrying that suitcase... Other Guy continues his streak of hardly talking to the nominees themselves, talking over Meryl Streep to ask her daughter questions. Penelope Cruz's dress is sixty years old, so make a note of that.

7:22: Is there are rule that no question can be interesting at all? How do people watch more than half an hour of this stuff? Jack Black to the rescue, sticking it to Other Guy with copious eye-rolling.

7:25: Did Seth Rogen attend the Oscars stag? Why do we need a "sneak peek" at the Oscars at this point? They're five minutes away! Speaking from what I know of music copyright law (former job, long story), this incorporation of multiple movie themes was probably a nightmare to put together.

7:28: And finally, it's done. Two minutes to go time!

7:30: Wow, the set really does look like a huge nightclub- the kind that seats several thousand and a live orchestra.

7:31: RDJ applauds himself during the monologue, awesome. Wait, Hugh Jackman starts with a monologue? But then breaks into a song and dance routine, ah.

7:35: The Button thing is cute, and we'd all like to run off with Anne Hathaway. Actually, after her and Jackman's Frost/Nixon duet, I'd much rather see Anne Hathaway host the Oscars. She was aces on SNL two months ago.

7:38: People are standing and applauding? I liked the medley well enough, but does Hugh Jackman always sing like he has a cold? Now he's sitting in Frank Langella's lap? Can we present an award already? Even a sound one- I'm geeked for all 24.

7:41: I actually kind of like random montages, since they're always more fun to watch than awkward live television, and we get several clips of past winners of the (finally) Supporting Actress award. Come on, Amy Adams! I'm either going to look like a genius or an idiot.

7:43: Uh, why are we dragging this out? Five former winners are delivering speeches on each acting nominee? We enraged Peter Gabriel for this? Could they not get rights to film clips?

7:47: Seventeen minutes in, still no statues handed out...

7:48: Penelope Cruz wins! Damn! "Not an auspicious start," says my mom. Ugh- Cruz is killing me here. At least she thanks Almodovar for making her career. 0 for 1.

7:49: My dad's new tv has subtitles on all the time, and whoever's keeping up with the show just copped out and put [speaking in foreign langauge] when Cruz broke into some rapid Spanish.

7:53: Steve Martin and Tina Fey! Okay, I'm actually sort of digging not knowing the presenters ahead of time. We get a writing award already? Original Screenplay better go to Milk or this night will not go well at all for me.

7:56: Based on the applause-o-meter, Wall-E might steal this... No, it's Dustin Lance Black! I'm batting .500. Black really knows how to get to the point in a speech, by the way, but he is a writer. That speech was a hell of a moment, right there. Right on.

7:58: And Adapted Screenplay! Man, are they going to just rattle off all the techs in a five minute span later? I audibly "booed" The Reader's screenplay, by the way.

8:01: Beaufoy and Slumdog start the process. 2 for 3. He did make me smile with his opening line: "There are few places in the world you can never imagine yourself standing- for me that's the moon, the south pole, the Miss World podium, and here."

8:03: That was a good Dreamworks slam, Jack Black. Can we give Wall-E a statue already? No, it's time for another montage.

8:06: Unexpectedly awesome? The Animation montage is set to Does It Offend You, Yeah? music. Point to you, Ganis. Wall-E wins Best Animated Feature! Andrew Stanton also knows how to make a speech, but he probably had the most time to prepare of anybody. 3 for 4.

8:08: Animated Short: here's where my random guessing skills come in to play. Come on, french title... La Maison De Petites Cubes wins! Boo yah! 4 for 5! I just threw up my arms with more vigor than at any point during the Superbowl (and I grew up in Pittsburgh).

8:10: If the Oscars get a third of the Superbowl's audience (hopefully), then do ads cost one third as much? Like $1 Million?

8:15: Craig... Daniel Craig. He sounds pretty authoritative even reading pre-pared Art Direction banter. Come on, Dark Knight love... Did I pick with my heart too much on this one? Yes, I did. Button takes it. 4 for 6. Last year I nailed Sweeney Todd out of nowhere for Art Direction and was so proud...

8:17 Straight into Best Costumes. I kind of like the "Oscars as narrative" gimmick they've got going. The Duchess- woot! 5 for 7.

8:22: Man, that costume guy went on forever. Straight into Best Makeup! Can Daniel Craig host the whole thing? Come on, Button... Nailed it! 6 for 8.

8:25: Did the announcer just say "Robert Patterson"? I really am sick of all the Twilight hoopla, but it's Robert Pattinson, people. He and Amanda Seyfried look like anime characters. Why do we need a "romance" montage? These should all be set to Does It Offend You, Yeah? I think.

8:28: Included in the "romance" clips is The Reader! Hooray for pedophilia! Commercial time. For the curious, Dave is one ahead of me at 7 for 8, presently- he missed only the animated short.

8:31: Ben Stiller's Joaquin Phoenix impression is pretty winning. Here comes Best Cinematography, another Oscar I picked for The Dark Knight that won't happen...

8:33: I really, really don't want Slumdog Millionaire to wine nine Oscars. Did I let that influence my decision making? Yes, yes I did. 6 for 9, now that Anthony Dod Mantle has an award. Hopefully I can make it up on the shorts and sound awards.

8:37: How come a guy never hosts the tech awards dinner? That's sexist, that is. Jessica Biel talks about one of the Pixar co-founders for a little while.

8:46: Okay, I forgot to write stuff during the Pineapple Express skit because I was actually entertained, so point there, Apatow. Live Action short: Spielzeugland! Go H-Caust factor! Bam! 7 for 10.

8:51: Hugh Jackman? Haven't seen him for a while. I thought Chicago brought the musical back, but Hugh informs us that Mamma Mia! has done so this year. And now Hugh's singing and dancing again... with Beyonce. Again, no Peter Gabriel for this? I'm checking out until this is over.

8:55: And people from High School Musical also join in. And the young ones from Mamma Mia!... I feel like Will Ferrell in the Celebrity Jeopardy sketches right now: "French Stewart, you answered 'threeve,' a combination of the numbers three and five. And you wagered 'Texas' with a dollar sign in front of it... I'm speechless." Just... why? There are no nominated musicals this year. How are musicals back? Mamma Mia! didn't even win any BAFTAs, and it's the highest grossing film of all time in Britain.

9:02: Finally, it's Heath Ledger time. I say we just let Matilda give the speech, that would be adorable... Christopher Walken alert!... Phillip Seymour Hoffman is wearing a knit cap, at the Oscars.

9:05: Man, they're lucky Cuba Gooding Jr. was available for this. Hee.

9:07: Okay, Heath Ledger isn't winning an Oscar for his entire life, people. Three family members accept? Couldn't we just have had Nolan say a few polite words? I bet they don't do the playoff music, for once. Anyway, 8 for 11.

9:14: Looks like it's documentary time, judging by the montage with the Phillip Glass music we just saw. Bill Maher is kind of a jackass, but that's not news. Man On Wire wins doc feature! 9 for 12. Okay, I love the French high-wire guy now- he made a coin disappear during his speech. Magic! Bring on Doc Short...

9:17: Damn it! I never get all three shorts! Congrats to Smile Pinki, but I'm skipping the speech. 9 for 13.

9:22: Time for Sound awards, I think. It's make or break time- does Slumdog sweep all nine, or will my Wall-E predictions hold any weight? Ooh, the Hives for this montage. Nice. Although the song overpowers most of the effects they're highlighting...

9:25: (Why are they taunting me with a part of Howard and Zimmer's not-nominated Dark Knight score as Will Smith is raised onto the stage? Don't rub it in). Turns out it was Visual Effects First, by the way. This category went rogue last year...

9:26: But not this time! Button picks up another. 10 for 14. How did those four dudes decide which one got to speak? Draw straws?

9:28: Now it's sound time. Sound Editing, to be precise. Anything but Slumdog, dear god. Yes! The Dark Knight! Whoo! Suck it, India! I got this wrong but I'm happy we don't have to hear about Slumdog in the same company as Return Of The King as a clean sweeper.

9:32: And Sound Mixing goes to...Slumdog Millionaire. Ugh. I'm heading to the bathroom. That's 10 for 16.

9:33: Will Smith, still? All right, let's do Editing. I would love Slumdog to lose here, as long as my percentage is dropping anyway... but Chris Dickens takes the statue. 11 for 17. Dave is still one ahead of me at 12 for 17, and it's going to come down to Penn vs. Rourke to see if I can tie him or not.

9:37: Let's see, are they going to present seven more statues and the lifetime achievement award before ten thirty? I say no.

9:42: Clearly there's no better choice to present a humanitarian award than Eddie Murphy. I'll be back in a little bit...

9:53: A montage of the Best Original Score music... can we hurry along? Nothing makes the Oscars seem longer than writing about them while you watch. Try it next time. Alicia Keys and the obligatory Zac Effron present Slumdog with yet another Oscar. 12 for 18.

9:57: How do we know that Best Original Song is stacked for Slumdog? John Legend gets to sing "Down To Earth" from Wall-E with backup dancers from Slumdog's first performance, at least at first. "Jai Ho" also clearly sends the subtitler into fits- he only gets the chorus.

10:00: Wow, you know what you get when you mix "Jai Ho" and "Down To Earth" together? A pile of garbage, that's what. And the Oscar goes to... "Jai Ho." Yawn. 13 for 19.

10:06: Foreign language time, and Waltz With Bashir inexplicably loses to Departures. 13 for 20. I'm getting tired.

10:18: Sorry, just checked out for the "People We've Lost" montage, set to Queen Latifah singing something or other. Reese Witherspoon trots out for... director? Before the lead actors? Come on, that's going too far.

10:19: I forgot all about Frost/Nixon until I saw Ron Howard just now... Danny Boyle takes home his first award. It's too bad he can't sell his Oscar and donate the proceeds to providing India with a better social infrastructure. 14 for 21.

10:25: Lead Actress highlight reel! For the record, I would love to be wrong about this one (much as I love Kate Winslet, you can't tell me she was better than she was in Eternal Sunshine). Making it through a whole paragraph with the 74 year old Sophia Loren was an adventure...

10:31: And the Oscar goes to Kate Winslet! 15 for 22. That's the only Oscar it gets, Dave. Content yourself with that. She's really milking her time here, but she's accepting for six previous nominations, to be fair.

10:35: Just so we're all aware, I'm at 15, Dave's at 16, and if Rourke wins we'll tie, and it Penn wins he'll beat me by two. It's go time here at Kinematoscope.

10:37: No Daniel Day Lewis for our quintet of Best Actor presenters? Aw. Again, what luck that Adrian Brody had the free time. Rourke has a slight aplause-o-meter edge, but that might be because De Niero didn't pause long enough talking about Penn...

10:43: Sean Penn?! That does it. I am officially not caring next year. (Yes I will, actually). Also, you know what kills drama during an acceptance speech? Reading glasses.

10:45: And Mickey Rourke was never heard from again. 15 for 23.

11:00: Slumdog Millionaire wins Best Picture and a total of eight Oscars. Just so we're clear, we're saying that Slumdog F*cking Millionaire is twice as good as No Country For Old Men, The Departed, A Beautiful Mind, Unforgiven, Driving Miss Daisy, Rain Man, Platoon, Chariots Of Fire, Ordinary People, Annie Hall, Tom Jones, Marty, Oliver's Hamlet, and Billy Wilder's The Lost Weekend. We're supposed to believe that it's precisely, exactly, twice the film that any of the Best Picture winners I just listed ever were.

Give me a break.

To sum up, I came up from last year's 13 with 16 correct out of 24. Last year I went with mostly conventional thinking and largely got burned, this year I would've done better to pick all favorites (I lost on Cruz, Penn, Button for Art Direction, Slumdog for Cinematography, and I would've got one Sound award if I put Slumdog for both like most people. That would've been 21, not that I'm counting).

Dave put in a very solid 18 out of 24 correct, missing only the two sound awards, the three shorts, and foreign language, which is really like getting 18 out of 20 for films he's seen.

I guess I'm a bit disappointed that there was only one surprise of any kind (Waltz With Bashir losing Best Foreign Language)- I thought the whole theme of the Oscars is "nobody knows anything," not "they're a herd of mindless sheep with a lot of white guilt to work off."

I did enjoy some of the things they tried with the telecast- making a film as narrative determining the presentation order, the Apatow short, and best of all no awfully boring speech from Sid Ganis. And of course, I'll be watching next year, because this is what I do.